来源：《卫报》
原文刊登日期：2020年12月9日
What do strippers and scholars have in common? There is some evidence that they are more likely to be firstborn children. The over-representation of firstborns in these professions, according to a 1975 research paper, could be down to the fact that “both groups have especially intense needs for recognition, attention, and approval”. Another explanation, of course, could be that the stripper study was based on just 35 people (of which 31 were firstborn) and is thus completely meaningless.
脱衣舞娘和学者有什么共同之处？有证据表明，他们更有可能是第一个孩子。根据1975年的一份研究报告，在这些行业中，父母第一个孩子的比例过高，可能是因为“两个群体都特别渴望得到赏识、关注和赞许”。当然，另一种解释可能是，对脱衣舞女的研究仅基于35人(其中31人是长子)，因此完全没有意义。
It’s not just stripping and scholarship that is supposed to attract eldest kids. A 2017 Swedish study found that firstborn children are more likely to be CEOs and managers while youngest children are more likely to take risks and be self-employed. Another study found that middle children are 30% more likely to be CEOs than their siblings and 41% more likely to be Olympic athletes.
吸引最年长孩子的不只是脱衣舞和学术。2017年瑞典的一项研究发现，第一个孩子更有可能成为首席执行官和经理，而最小的孩子更有可能冒险和自主创业。另一项研究发现，排行中间的孩子成为ceo的可能性比他们的兄弟姐妹高出30%，成为奥运会运动员的可能性高出41%。
The idea that your birth order determines your future is attractive: it means you can blame more of your life choices on your parents. Alas, a new study from the University of Houston has found that the role of birth order on personality and career choice has probably been overestimated. The psychologist Rodica Damian looked at data tracking 3,763 Americans across 50 years and found that “there is little-to-no evidence here to suggest that first- v later-borns are destined for specific careers.” Her results chime with another largescale study from 2015 that looked at 20,000 adults from the US, UK and Germany and found “no birth-order effects on emotional stability, agreeableness or imagination.”
你的出生顺序决定了你的未来，这种想法很有吸引力：这意味着你可以更多地把人生选择归咎于你的父母。唉，休斯顿大学的一项新研究发现，出生顺序对性格和职业选择的影响可能被高估了。心理学家罗迪卡·达米安研究了3763名美国人50年来的数据，发现“几乎没有证据表明头胎出生的人和晚出生的人注定会从事特定的职业。”她的结果与2015年的另一项大规模研究一致，该研究对来自美国、英国和德国的2万名成年人进行了调查，发现“出生顺序对情绪稳定性、亲和性或想象力没有影响。”
So there you go: for every research paper saying one thing, there’s another paper saying exactly the opposite.
你看，每一篇研究论文说的是一件事，就有另一篇论文说的恰恰相反。