来源：《华盛顿邮报》
原文刊登日期：2021年6月26日
The decades-long decline in the U.S. birthrate accelerated in 2020, as the average number of babies born to American women over the course of their lifetimes fell to its lowest level since government record-keeping began nearly a century ago. After a decade in which the population grew at the most sluggish pace since the 1930s, last year’s slowdown in births suggests a new demographic normal — one that poses daunting economic and geopolitical challenges.
美国出生率持续数十年的下降在2020年加速，美国妇女一生中平均生育的婴儿数量降至近一个世纪前政府开始记录以来的最低水平。在经历了自20世纪30年代以来人口增长最缓慢的十年后，去年出生率的下降表明了一种新的人口常态——一种带来巨大经济和地缘政治挑战的常态。
In a country where fertility is now well below the replacement rate required to compensate for deaths, an obvious question arises: As the United States ages, how will a dwindling cohort of younger, working-age Americans sustain the expensive social services that their parents and grandparents are counting on in retirement?
在一个生育率远低于补偿死亡所需的更替率的国家，一个显而易见的问题出现了：随着美国的老龄化，越来越少的年轻、工作年龄的美国人将如何维持他们的父母和祖父母退休时所依赖的昂贵的社会服务？
The rational answer is a robust immigration system, one that affords the nation a ready supply of striving employees in jobs for which there are insufficient numbers of native-born Americans, as well as a steady stream of well-educated professionals to fill engineering, scientific, technology and medical jobs, among others. Immigrants are twice as likely to start new businesses as native-born Americans and buttress economic growth — think of Tesla, Google and PayPal, all started by entrepreneurs born elsewhere.
合理的答案是建立一个健全的移民体系，在本土出生美国人数量不足的工作岗位上，这一体系能为美国提供现成的努力工作的员工，以及稳定的受过良好教育的专业人士，以填补工程、科学、技术和医疗等岗位。移民创办新企业的可能性是土生土长美国人的两倍，并对经济增长起到了促进作用——想想特斯拉(Tesla)、谷歌和贝宝(PayPal)，它们都是由生于美国之外的企业家创办的。
Yet as the 2020 Census demonstrated, immigration flattened out following the Great Recession in 2008, was actively impeded by the Trump administration and fell once the coronavirus tightened its grip. That reversed a trend toward rising numbers of immigrants since the 1960s, when a half-century boom in foreign-born arrivals helped fuel economic growth.
然而，正如2020年的人口普查所显示的那样，移民在2008年大衰退之后趋于平稳，之后受到特朗普政府的积极阻挠，在新冠疫情加强入境控制后下降。这扭转了自上世纪60年代以来移民数量不断增加的趋势。从那时起，外国出生的移民潮持续了半个世纪，推动了经济增长。
The United States has been growing at a faster clip than other developed countries for most of its history. But population stagnation may mean a very different future, and probably a less vital one, than many Americans might imagine. In the short run, it might mean jobs that go begging for workers as caretakers for the elderly, truck drivers, computer programmers and other occupations. In the long run, it could impede the country’s ability to maintain its status as a superpower.
美国在其历史上的大部分时间里都比其他发达国家经济增长速度更快。但人口停滞可能意味着一个完全不同的未来，而且经济可能没有许多美国人想象的那样有活力。从短期来看，这可能意味着像照顾老人、卡车司机、计算机程序员等工作急需工人。从长远来看，这可能会阻碍美国维持其超级大国地位的能力。
Among the many theories to explain the falling birthrate are women’s increasing labor-force participation; the daunting cost of living, particularly housing, in job-rich urban areas; and a dramatic drop-off in teen pregnancy. Whatever combination of factors is driving the baby bust, what’s clear is that there will be no easy answer to reversing it, though family-friendly government and corporate policies could help.
众多解释出生率下降的理论包括：女性劳动参与率的增加；在就业机会丰富的城市地区，令人望而生畏的生活成本，特别是住房成本；少女怀孕率急剧下降。不管是什么因素共同推动了新生儿大量减少，但显而易见的是，扭转这一局面并非易事，尽管家庭友好型政府和企业政策可能会有所帮助。
By contrast, increasing the level of legal immigration is a policy choice that comes with a direct positive impact. Making that choice would entail forging a political consensus on a uniquely divisive issue that President Donald Trump, among others, has helped turn into a question of tribal identity. But not making it is likely equivalent to tolerating an era of demographic stagnation and, over time, diminished national prestige.
相比之下，增加合法移民的数量是一种具有直接积极影响的政策选择。做出这样的选择，就需要在这个具有独特分歧的问题上达成政治共识，特朗普总统等人已经把移民问题变成了一个部族认同的问题。但如果不这样做，就可能等同于容忍一个人口增长停滞的时代，以及随着时间的推移，国家威信也会下降。