来源：《每日电讯报》
原文刊登日期：2021年4月15日
A total of 4.7 million people were waiting to start treatment in the NHS in England at the end of February, the highest figure since records began in 2007. This was always anticipated – entire wards were cleared to make way for Covid patients – but the scale of the backlog is in contradiction with the claim repeatedly made that the NHS has been open for business.
截至2月底，英格兰共有470万人等待接受NHS的治疗，这是自2007年有记录以来的最高数字。这是在预料之中的——所有病房都被清理出来给新冠肺炎患者让路——但积压的规模与反复声称的NHS已经开业的说法相矛盾。
The number of people being admitted for routine treatment in England, for instance, is down by 47 per cent in a year – and nearly 330,000 have been waiting more than six weeks for a key diagnostic test. Urgent cancer referrals by GPs are down 8 per cent. It is likely that when people are finally examined and diagnosed, their illness will be more advanced, requiring more drastic therapy: there is even anecdotal evidence of patients showing up to A&E with late stage cancer.
例如，在英格兰，接受常规治疗的人数在一年内下降了47%，近33万人等待关键诊断检测超过6周。由全科医生提供的紧急癌症转诊减少了8%。很可能，当人们最终接受检查和诊断时，他们的病情会更严重，需要更极端的治疗：甚至有传闻证据表明，晚期癌症患者会出现在急诊室。
Pre-Covid, the long-term trend was a decline in mortality: the grim irony is that in throwing the kitchen sink at fighting one health crisis, the Government might have unleashed several others. The backlog must be cleared; the public is bound to ask why this is not being done faster given the success of the vaccine rollout. What is the Government’s plan, beyond asking us to stand in the queue and wait? Contrary to the Prime Minister’s claim that it is mostly lockdown that is driving a fall in infection and death, Sir Simon Stevens, the NHS chief executive, told the Health Service Journal that “Vaccines are successfully reducing hospitalisations and deaths amongst the cohorts that have had the vaccine.”
在新冠疫情爆发之前，长期趋势是死亡率下降：具有残酷讽刺意味的是，在竭尽所能抗击一场健康危机时，政府可能会引发其他几场危机。必须清理积压的就诊工作；公众一定会问，既然疫苗推广成功，为什么这项工作做得不够快。除了要求我们排队等候，政府还有什么计划？与首相声称主要是封锁导致感染和死亡人数下降的说法不同，NHS首席执行官西蒙·史蒂文斯爵士告诉《卫生服务杂志》：“疫苗成功地减少了接种疫苗人群的住院率和死亡率。”
Early research backs up Sir Simon (the rate of Covid-related admissions fell 75 per cent among vaccinated 80-83 year olds within about a month of their first jab) but his assertion is also common sense. Anyone who has had a dose of a vaccine is less likely to die; the most vulnerable are being expedited; the NHS ought to be able to switch gear towards other treatments.
早期的研究支持西蒙爵士（80-83岁接种疫苗的人在首次注射疫苗后大约一个月内，与新冠病毒相关的入院率下降了75%），而他的断言也是常识。接种过疫苗的人死亡的可能性较小；最脆弱的群体正在被加速接种疫苗；NHS应该能够把资源转向治疗其他疾病。
The Government needs to get its vaccine messaging clear. Perhaps officials are anxious that sounding too positive about the jabs will weaken obedience towards lockdown measures, but to follow the logic of “only lockdown works” to its natural conclusion would see the country never go back to normal and the NHS never fully reopen. As these waiting times figures warn, that is a recipe for an almighty human tragedy in its own right.
政府需要把疫苗的信息传达清楚。官员们可能担心，如果对防疫注射过于乐观，就会削弱人们对封锁措施的服从，但如果按照“只有封锁有效”的逻辑得出自然的结论，国家就永远不会恢复正常，NHS也永远不会全面开放。正如这些等待时间的数字所警告的那样，其本身就会导致一场巨大的人类悲剧。