来源：《每日电讯报》
原文刊登日期：2021年3月2日
Inflation may seem an unlikely concern for a chancellor contemplating a Budget in the midst of an economic shutdown. But there is growing anxiety among some economists (though by no means all) that the policies needed to shore up businesses during the pandemic will have long lasting consequences for prices. There are even fears that, as the lockdown is eased and consumer spending is released, the economy will overheat.
对于一位在经济停摆期间考虑预算的财政大臣来说，通胀似乎是一个不太可能引起关注的问题。但一些经济学家(尽管不是所有经济学家)越来越担心，疫情期间支撑企业所需的政策将对价格产生长期影响。甚至有人担心，随着封锁措施的放松和消费支出的释放，经济将过热。
There seems little prospect of a return to the hyperinflation of the 1970s. But the fiscal and monetary stimulus programmes followed here and elsewhere in the world could be storing up trouble for the future. The response is largely out of the Chancellor’s hands as monetary policy has been the responsibility of the Bank of England since 1997. The Bank’s committee will make the decision on whether to raise interest rates to stifle inflationary pressures.
重返20世纪70年代恶性通货膨胀的可能性似乎微乎其微。但美国和世界其他地方的财政和货币刺激计划可能为未来埋下麻烦。由于自1997年以来，货币政策一直是英格兰银行的责任，因此对此的反应基本上不在财政大臣的掌握之中。银行委员会将决定是否提高利率以抑制通胀压力。
However, the consequences of doing so will be acutely political because asset prices are so vulnerable to an increase in borrowing costs. The markets have recently taken fright at this prospect though have stabilised in recent days. Energy companies, mining stocks and property firms were the worst-performing sectors in London as they would be hit hard if central bankers started moving away from ultra-low interest rates and tightened policy to fight inflation. Andy Haldane, the Bank’s chief economist, warned recently that an “inflationary tiger” may have been released.
然而，提高利率的后果将具有强烈的政治色彩，因为资产价格很容易受到借款成本上升的影响。市场最近对这种前景感到恐慌，不过最近几天已经稳定下来。能源公司、矿业股和房地产公司是伦敦股市表现最差的板块，因为如果央行开始放弃超低利率并收紧政策以抗击通胀，它们将受到沉重打击。英国央行首席经济学家安迪•霍尔丹最近警告称，“通胀之虎”可能已经释放。
In the near term, Rishi Sunak has little to worry about, even if there is an explosion in suppressed demand when the brakes come off. But, as the next general election approaches, the last thing ministers will want is a rise in borrowing costs.
就近期而言，苏纳克没什么可担心的，即使当刹车松开时，被抑制的需求会出现爆炸式增长。但是，随着下一次大选的临近，内阁高官们最不希望看到的就是借贷成本的上升。