来源：《华盛顿邮报》
原文刊登日期：2022年2月7日
For decades, the United States has remained dynamic and prosperous, even as other major industrialized societies have stagnated. One major reason has been relatively high population growth, which reflects both the nation’s birthrate and how attractive the country is to immigrants. But the Census Bureau has reported that this engine of prosperity is sputtering out.
几十年来，尽管其他主要工业化国家停滞不前，但美国仍然保持着活力和繁荣。一个主要原因是相对较高的人口增长率，这既反映了美国的出生率，也反映了美国对移民的吸引力。但人口普查局报告称，这一繁荣引擎正在熄火。
The bureau found in late December that the nation’s population grew only 0.1 percent over the year ending on July 1, 2021, the slowest rate since its founding. The covid-19 pandemic is one explanation. During that period, the disease took the lives of about half a million people directly, but it also killed indirectly, as those with other maladies feared seeking care or could not get help in overburdened health systems. Meanwhile, economic uncertainty, public health concerns and social isolation appear to have contributed to fewer babies being born.
人口普查局12月底发现，在截至2021年7月1日的一年里，美国人口仅增长了0.1%，这是美国建国以来的最低增速。新冠大流行是一个原因。在此期间，新冠肺炎直接夺走了约50万人的生命，还造成了间接死亡，因为患有其他疾病的人害怕寻求护理，或无法在负荷过重的卫生系统中得到治疗。与此同时，经济不确定性、公共卫生问题和社会孤立似乎也导致了婴儿出生的减少。
But the pandemic merely magnified preexisting trends. The 2020 Census revealed that the nation’s population grew only 7.4 percent over the previous decade, the country’s second-slowest rate of growth ever, roughly tying the 7.3 percent increase during the Depression-era 1930s. The big baby-boom generation is aging, with its members entering their 60s, 70s and 80s, leading to more deaths among this large cohort. Life expectancy has declined, reflecting the effects of drug abuse, obesity, suicide and other factors that afflict young as well as old. A lower national birthrate means that natural replacement is not keeping pace.
但大流行只是放大了此前存在的趋势。2020年的人口普查显示，在过去10年里，美国人口仅增长了7.4%，这是美国有史以来第二慢的增长速度，大致持平于20世纪30年代大萧条时期的7.3%的增长。婴儿潮一代正在老去，其成员已进入60、70和80岁，导致这一大群体中更多人死亡。预期寿命有所下降，这反映了药物滥用、肥胖、自杀和其他折磨年轻人和老年人的因素的影响。一个较低的国家出生率意味着自然更替跟不上。
If it were not for immigration, the picture would be far worse. The bureau found in December that the country’s population rose by 392,665 people — and that 244,622 of them were immigrants. Relying on influxes of people from abroad is an American tradition; immigration accounted for more than half of the country’s population growth between 1965 and 2015. Yet immigration, too, is down.
如果不是因为移民，情况会更糟。人口普查局去年12月发现，美国人口增加了392665人，其中244622人是移民。依靠外来人口的涌入是美国的传统；1965年至2015年，移民占美国人口增长的一半以上。然而，移民数量也在下降。
Robust population growth not only provides more workers to sustain the young and the old; more people means more of the intellectual exchange, idea creation, entrepreneurship and competition that result from people interacting in a free, capitalist society. National policy should promote vigorous population expansion.
强劲的人口增长不仅为养活未成年人和老年人提供了更多的劳动力；更多的人也意味着更多的知识交流、创意创造、创业和竞争，这些都是人们在自由资本主义社会互动的结果。国家政策应大力促进人口扩张。
A more welcoming immigration policy — one that secures the border, while expanding legal immigration — is an obvious start. The federal government should also encourage more childbirth by making it easier to raise children in the United States. A permanent expansion of the child tax credit, universal prekindergarten education and other new child-care benefits would make having children a less daunting financial commitment.
一个更友好的移民政策——在确保边境安全的同时扩大合法移民——显然是一个开始。联邦政府也应该鼓励更多的生育，让在美国养育孩子变得更容易。永久性扩大儿童税收抵免、普及学前教育和其他新的儿童保育福利，将使养育孩子的财务负担减轻。
The United States remains better off than countries such as Japan, which is seeing negative population growth. But complacency and social problems still threaten the nation’s long-term prospects.
美国的情况仍然好于日本等人口负增长的国家。但是自满和社会问题仍然威胁着这个国家的长期前景。