来源：《华盛顿邮报》
原文刊登日期：2022年3月1日
Adapting to climate change will be an existential imperative in the coming decades. That’s a key takeaway from a grim report released this week by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. At times, the document feels like a surrender to the reality that massive losses from a warming globe are inevitable.
未来几十年，适应气候变化将是人类生存的当务之急。这是政府间气候变化专门委员会本周发布的一份严峻报告得出的关键结论。有时，这份文件让人感觉像是屈服于这样一个现实：全球变暖带来的巨大损失是不可避免的。
Unfortunately, adaption strategies are limited, the report warns. And relying too heavily on reactive strategies will place the greatest burden not only on vulnerable populations lacking the resources to adapt but also on the planet’s biodiversity. That creates an even greater need to double down on reducing greenhouse gas emissions while it is still possible.
报告警告称，不幸的是，适应策略的作用有限。过度依赖被动策略不仅会给缺乏适应资源的弱势群体带来最大的负担，还会给地球的生物多样性带来最大的负担。此，在仍有可能的情况下，更有必要加倍努力减少温室气体排放。
The more than-3,500-page report is an exhaustive review of the devastating impact that climate change will have on the world. Humans have already increased average global temperatures by 1.1 degrees Celsius since pre-industrial time. In the best-case scenario, in which humanity limits further warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the number of extreme weather events that a person born in the past decade will experience in their lifetime will increase nearly fourfold. Eight percent of the world’s farmland would become unsuitable for growing crops by the century’s end.
这份3500多页的报告详尽地回顾了气候变化将对世界造成的毁灭性影响。自工业化时代开启以来，人类活动已经使全球平均气温上升了1.1摄氏度。在最好的情况下，人类将升温限制在1.5摄氏度以内，过去10年出生的人一生中所经历的极端天气事件的数量将增加近4倍。到本世纪末，世界上8%的农田将不适合种植农作物。
The bad news is that the world is on track to blow through that optimistic threshold. If that happens, the effects of climate change will become substantially worse. If, for example, the world warms by nearly 2 more degrees Celsius, the IPCC reports, tens of millions more people will experience extreme heat waves. Hundreds of millions more will be exposed to water scarcity. And millions more will die due to climate-related diseases.
坏消息是，世界正朝着冲破1.5度这一乐观阈值的方向发展。如果这种情况发生，气候变化的影响将变得更加严重。政府间气候变化专门委员会报告称，例如，如果全球气温上升近2摄氏度，将有数千万人遭遇极端热浪。还有数亿人将面临缺水问题。还有数百万人将死于气候相关疾病。
Then there’s the effect climate change will have on wildlife. The report estimates that up to 14 percent of species in terrestrial ecosystems will likely face a “very high risk of extinction” if the globe warms 1.5 degrees Celsius. At 2 degrees, that rises to 18 percent. At 3 degrees, it’s 29 percent. Remember, many of these species are essential to human civilization. If they disappear, so will the pollinators that sustain our agriculture.
此外，气候变化将对野生动物产生影响。该报告估计，如果全球变暖1.5摄氏度，陆地生态系统中多达14%的物种可能面临“非常高的灭绝风险”。气温上升2摄氏度，这一比例将上升到18%。在3度的时候，是29%。请记住，这些物种中有许多对人类文明至关重要。如果它们消失了，维持我们农业的传粉昆虫也会消失。
The report lays out lots of adaptive strategies to mitigate the effects of climate change, from structural measures, such as levees to hold back floods, to conservation strategies to protect ecosystems. But these measures are limited. Many countries will not be able to afford to build adaptive infrastructure. And many fragile ecosystems — such as coral reefs and rainforests — are already nearing “hard limits” as they struggle to cope with warmer oceans or more frequent droughts.
该报告列出了许多适应战略，以减轻气候变化的影响，从防洪堤等建筑措施，到生态系统的保护战略。但这些措施作用有限。许多国家将无力建设适应性基础设施。许多脆弱的生态系统——如珊瑚礁和雨林——已经接近“硬极限”，因为它们难以应对更温暖的海洋或更频繁的干旱。
It’s typical for reports such as this to be referred to as a “wake-up call.” But there is no excuse for policymakers to be asleep to the threat of climate change at this point. Time is running out to substantially reduce carbon pollution and other greenhouse gases. If we don’t act soon, adaptation will become impossible for many of Earth’s inhabitants.
这类报告通常被称为“警钟”。但在这一点上，决策者没有任何借口对气候变化的威胁视而不见。要大幅度减少碳污染和其他温室气体，时间已经不多了。如果我们不尽快采取行动，地球上的许多居民将无法适应。