来源：《华盛顿邮报》
原文刊登日期：2022年4月13日
Recession risks are rising. According to economists and Wall Street firms, the odds of a recession in the next year are nearly 30 percent. There’s still a good chance the United States can dodge a downturn, especially with all the extra cash on hand that many households, businesses, and state and local governments have after the federal stimulus to fight the pandemic and with the quick rebounds in jobs, home prices and the stock market. But the latest warning signs of a potential recession are a reminder of how unprepared the nation is for another downturn.
经济衰退的风险正在上升。据经济学家和华尔街公司称，明年经济衰退的可能性接近30%。美国仍然有很大的可能性躲过经济衰退，特别是在联邦政府刺激抗击新冠大流行以及就业、房价和股市迅速反弹后，许多家庭、企业、各州和地方政府手头都有多余的现金。但最新出现的经济衰退迹象提醒人们，美国对新一轮经济衰退准备不足。
Economists have been urging Congress for years to pass “automatic stabilizers” — a fancy way of saying extra federal aid for people who lose their jobs in a downturn — that would kick in if the unemployment rate rose above a certain threshold. This would get help out swiftly without waiting for a sclerotic Congress to act.
多年来，经济学家们一直敦促国会通过“自动稳定器”——一种对在经济衰退中失去工作的人提供额外联邦援助的花哨说法——如果失业率上升到某个阈值以上，该稳定器就会生效。失业者将迅速得到帮助，而无需等待僵化的国会采取行动。
Lawmakers managed to move quickly in March 2020 to enact aid for individuals, businesses and the health system. That action kept millions of households out of poverty. The most successful program was the stimulus checks that delivered cash to more than 160 million people by the summer of 2020. The pandemic was unique, however, because it touched everyone. Most recessions require more targeted aid, such as unemployment benefits and food assistance to people who are losing jobs or seeing their businesses collapse.
2020年3月，议员们迅速采取行动，制定了对个人、企业和医疗系统的援助法案。这一行动使数百万家庭摆脱了贫困。最成功的项目是现金刺激，到2020年夏天，它为1.6亿多人提供了现金。然而，这次大流行是独一无二的，因为它影响到每个人。大多数经济衰退都需要更有针对性的援助，比如为失业或眼看企业倒闭的人提供失业救济金和食品援助。
There is also a glaring need for the United States to overhaul its unemployment aid system. This should be the backbone of any recession response. It failed spectacularly in the spring of 2020 as tens of millions of Americans applied and the systems in most states could not handle anything close to that volume. Computer programs were outdated. What should have taken two weeks took, in some cases, months.
美国也迫切需要彻底修改其失业援助系统。这应该是任何应对衰退措施的支柱。2020年春天，它以惊人的失败告终，因为数千万美国人向失业援助系统申请，而大多数州的系统都无法处理这个级别的数据量。计算机程序过时了。本应需要两周就能完成的工作，在某些情况下却需要数月。
Two years later, the unemployment system is barely better. Congress approved money for states to upgrade their unemployment processing technology, but many of them say it’s not enough. They have spent money trying to fight fraud and have been slower to make other major updates. In the past few weeks, Kansas, Michigan and Oregon have just begun to modernize their systems. Other states predict it could take two or more years for upgrades.
两年后的今天，美国的失业援助系统几乎没有改善。国会批准拨款给各州升级失业处理技术，但许多州表示钱不够。它们在打击欺诈方面投入了大量资金，而在其他重大更新方面进展缓慢。在过去的几个星期里，堪萨斯州、密歇根州和俄勒冈州刚刚开始进行系统的现代化。其他州预测，升级可能需要两年或更长时间。
Meanwhile, many states have reverted to much stingier unemployment aid in an effort to spur people back to work. If a recession does hit again, self-employed and “gig” workers would once again not qualify for aid in most instances, leaving out millions of people in a time of need. The pandemic laid bare the need for a better and faster unemployment system that reflects the changes taking shape in the workforce. Ideally, it would reduce fraud, speed up processing times and make more Americans who lose work eligible for relief.
与此同时，许多州已经恢复了更为吝啬的失业援助，以刺激人们重返工作岗位。如果经济衰退再次袭来，在大多数情况下，自营职业者和“零工”工人将再次失去获得援助的资格，使数百万人在需要援助的时候无法获得援助。这场大流行表明，需要一个更好、更快的失业援助系统，以反映劳动力正在发生的变化。理想情况下，这将减少欺诈，加快处理时间，让更多失去工作的美国人有资格获得救济。
No one wants another recession, but one day — perhaps soon — it will come. The time to get ready is now.
没有人希望再次陷入衰退，但总有一天——或许很快——它会到来。现在是准备的时候了。