来源：《华盛顿邮报》
原文刊登日期：2022年4月26日
The Federal Reserve has all but guaranteed that interest rates are going up by half a percentage point, to nearly 1 percent, when Fed leaders make their next announcement on May 4. It’s the most aggressive rate increase the U.S. central bank has made since 2000, when the dot-com boom was overheating markets and the economy. Now there’s a much more sinister economic malady afoot — high inflation — and in our view the Fed is overdue to start taking more aggressive action to contain it.
美联储几乎已经保证，当美联储领导人在5月4日发布下一次声明时，利率将上升0.5个百分点，接近1%。这是美联储自2000年以来最激进的一次加息，当时互联网热潮导致市场和经济过热。现在，一个更可怕的经济痼疾正在酝酿——高通胀——在我们看来，美联储早该开始采取更积极的行动来遏制通胀。
Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell said last week that a larger-than-normal hike is “on the table” for May, which is about as much confirmation as the central bank leader ever gives about what’s coming. Wall Street reacted swiftly, sending stocks tanking and bond yields higher. But the more important move was the rise of mortgage rates above 5 percent, their highest levels in more than a decade. The housing market, like so much of the pandemic economy, needs to cool off so supply and demand can return to a more equal footing. For now, the Fed needs to ignore market gyrations and focus on bringing the heat down in the real economy — especially the exorbitant demand for all sorts of goods, from cars and homes to bikes and gardening tools.
上周，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，5月份高于往常的加息幅度“已在讨论中”，这几乎是这位央行领导人对即将发生的事情所给出的最有力的肯定。华尔街迅速做出反应，股市暴跌，债券收益率走高。但更重要的举措是抵押贷款利率升至5%以上，这是十多年来的最高水平。房地产市场，就像疫情经济的许多领域一样，需要降温，这样供需才能恢复到更相等的水平。目前，美联储需要忽略市场波动，专注于给实体经济降温——尤其是对各种商品的过度需求，从汽车、住宅到自行车和园艺工具。
While headlines focused on Powell’s signaling of action next week, his more important line was this one: “It is appropriate in my view to be moving a little more quickly” to raise interest rates. The need for a big May rate hike was obvious as inflation soared higher in March. But there are also troubling signs that inflation is spreading to the service sector and that businesses and consumers foresee sustained elevated inflation. A large June hike is also likely. The real question for the Fed is what happens later this year. Powell needs to remain clear that taming inflation is the top priority for a while.
尽管各大媒体都在关注鲍威尔下周将采取行动的信号，但他更重要的言论是：“在我看来，加快一点步伐”加息是合适的。随着3月份通胀率飙升，5月份大幅加息的必要性显而易见。但也有令人不安的迹象表明，通胀正在向服务业蔓延，企业和消费者预计通胀将持续走高。6月份也有可能大幅加息。对美联储来说，真正的问题是今年晚些时候会发生什么。鲍威尔需要明确的是，在一段时间内，抑制通胀是首要任务。
It’s becoming popular to bash the Fed, as well as Congress and the White House, for doing too much to aid and stimulate the economy during the pandemic. In reality, it’s far too early to judge the results. What’s clear is the job market is nearly healed two years after the crisis began, compared with about eight years to recover after the Great Recession. The United States also did not see a surge in poverty this time, and while some businesses did close, it was not the avalanche initially feared. These are major successes. They came with the inflation. If the Fed can’t tame inflation in the coming months, the nation could easily fall into another recession. But there’s also a path forward in which the economy continues to grow and this recovery goes down in history for its swiftness. We should all be rooting for that outcome.
批评美联储、国会和白宫在疫情期间做了太多的援助和刺激经济，变得越来越流行。事实上，现在评判结果还为时过早。很明显的是，就业市场在危机开始两年后几乎已经恢复，而次贷危机后的复苏时间约为八年。美国这次也没有看到贫困人口激增，虽然一些企业确实倒闭了，但并没有像最初担心的那样出现雪崩。这些都是重大的成功。它们是伴随着通货膨胀而来的。如果美联储不能在未来几个月遏制通胀，美国很可能再次陷入衰退。但也有一条经济继续增长的道路，这条道路上的复苏将因其快速而载入史册。我们都应该支持这个结果。