来源：《彭博商业周刊》
原文见刊日期：2022年5月23日
本文意为“增加”“上升”的动词较多：soar，proliferate，surge，increase
To soaring prices, plummeting stocks and disrupted supply chains, add another worry for American consumers: an alarming shortage of baby formula. Beyond the current panic, the crisis is an object lesson in how decades of protectionism can culminate in disaster.
除了物价飙升、股市暴跌和混乱的供应链之外，美国消费者又多了一个要担心的问题：婴儿配方奶粉的严重短缺。除了目前的恐慌之外，这场危机是一个客观的教训，表明数十年的保护主义如何能最终酿成灾难。
Reports of empty shelves have proliferated in recent weeks. An analysis by Datasembly found that the out-of-stock rate for baby formula surged to 43% nationwide in May, up from 11% in November. In some cities the rate exceeds 50%. Experts warn it could be months before supplies are back to normal.
最近几周，关于货架空置的报道激增。Datasembly的一项分析发现，5月份全美婴儿配方奶粉的缺货率从去年11月份的11%飙升至43%。在一些城市，这一比例超过了50%。专家警告说，供应恢复正常可能需要几个月的时间。
Two basic problems underlie the shortage, one new and one years in the making.
短缺背后有两个基本问题，一个是新问题，另一个是酝酿多年的问题。
The first was a contamination scare. In February, Abbott shut a plant in Michigan when federal regulators warned consumers that four infants had been hospitalized after exposure to its products, and two had died. Abbott issued a voluntary recall. Because the Michigan plant made more than half the company’s US formula — and Abbott produces some 40% of total domestic supply — the shutdown rippled across the market and worsened existing production challenges, such as labor shortages and supply-chain disruptions.
第一个是污染恐慌。今年2月，雅培关闭了密歇根州的一家工厂，当时联邦监管机构警告消费者，有四名婴儿因接触其产品而入院治疗，其中两名婴儿死亡。雅培宣布自愿召回。由于密歇根州的工厂生产了该公司超过一半的供应给美国市场的配方奶粉，而雅培生产了美国总供应量的40%左右，关闭工厂的影响波及整个市场，并加剧了现有的产能问题，如劳动力短缺和供应链中断。
A second, more tricky problem is that decades of bad policy have led to an unduly concentrated market. Excessive tariffs and other trade barriers have all but shut out imported formula. Even if consumers were willing to pay higher prices, the red tape that the government imposes on foreign products can be prohibitive. Such measures have effectively blacklisted imports from the European Union.
第二个、也是更棘手的问题是，数十年的糟糕政策导致了市场过度集中。过高的关税和其他贸易壁垒几乎将进口配方奶粉拒之门外。即使消费者愿意支付更高的价格，政府强加在外国产品上的繁文缛节也可能令人望而却步。这些措施实际上将从欧盟进口的配方奶粉列入了黑名单。
A program overseen by the Agriculture Department worsens this dynamic. The Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children, known as WIC, provides vouchers to low-income families to help pay for food. By some estimates, it accounts for half of all US formula sales. Over the years, formula producers have offered increasingly steep discounts to win WIC contracts, knowing that this will make retailers more likely to stock their brands and thus boost their market share.
农业部监管的一个项目使市场份额更加集中。妇女、婴儿和儿童特别补充营养计划(WIC)向低收入家庭提供代金券，用于支付食品费用。据估计，该项目占美国所有配方奶粉销量的一半。多年来，配方奶粉生产商为赢得WIC合同，提供了越来越大的折扣，他们知道这将使零售商更有可能囤积自己的品牌，从而提高市场份额。
This arrangement discourages new competitors from entering the market, inhibits investment, and suppresses the price increases that would normally encourage new production when shortages arise. Such a system seems almost ready-made to exacerbate a supply crisis.
这种约定阻止了新的竞争对手进入市场，抑制了投资，并抑制了价格上涨，而价格上涨通常会在出现短缺时鼓励新的产能。这样的体系似乎必然会加剧供应危机。
So what now? The FDA is working to increase formula imports, the USDA is trying to relax WIC rules to boost supply of eligible products, and companies across the industry are cranking up production. None of those steps will alleviate shortages overnight, but they’re all on the right path.
那现在情况如何？美国食品和药物管理局正在努力增加配方奶粉进口，美国农业部正在努力放宽WIC规则，以增加合格产品的供应，整个行业的公司都在加紧生产。这些措施都不会在一夜之间缓解短缺，但它们都在正确的道路上。
Over the longer term, one hopes this crisis will help policymakers accept that protectionism doesn't make the economy stronger or more resilient. Quite the opposite: It diminishes competition, limits choice and capacity, raises prices, and leads to vulnerable supply chains.
从长期来看，人们希望这场危机将有助于政策制定者接受保护主义不会使经济更强大或更具弹性的观点。恰恰相反：保护主义削弱了竞争，限制了选择和产能，提高了价格，导致供应链脆弱。