来源：《华盛顿邮报》
原文刊登日期：2022年6月4日
Inflation is up, the job market is tight, and oil markets are volatile: These indicators seem, for the moment, to be the key factors determining the United States’ well-being. But they will shift substantially in a matter of months or years. In the meantime, seemingly no one pays attention to the long-term picture, which has remained alarmingly consistent. The nation has made promises to its elderly that it cannot possibly keep while continuing to do right by younger generations. That the country has muddled through so far is a testament only to the fact that the worst has not yet hit.
通货膨胀上升，就业市场紧缩，石油市场动荡：目前，这些指标似乎是决定美国福祉的关键因素。但这些情况将在数月或数年内发生重大变化。与此同时，似乎没有人关注长期前景，而长期前景惊人地始终如一。美国向其老年人做出了无法兑现的承诺，却继续要求年轻一代做正确的事情。到目前为止，美国还在蒙混过关，这只是证明了一个事实：最糟糕的情况还没有发生。
The trustees for Medicare and Social Security released Thursday their yearly projections of how these cornerstone old-age entitlements will fare as more Americans begin drawing benefits and coverage costs rise. They concluded that the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund, which finances retirees’ monthly Social Security checks, will run through its reserves by 2034. At that point the tax revenue stream backing the fund could pay for only about 77 percent of promised benefits.
美国联邦医疗保险(Medicare)和社会保障的受托人周四公布了，随着越来越多的美国人开始享受福利、保险价格上升，他们对这些基础养老福利将如何发展的年度预测。他们得出的结论是，为退休人员每月的社会保障支票提供资金的养老和遗属保险信托基金，将在2034年前耗尽其储备金。到那时，支撑该基金的税收流只能支付约77%的承诺福利。
Meanwhile, the Medicare trust fund financing old-age hospital spending will run short by 2028, and spending on other elements of the Medicare program, which is backed by general tax revenue, is set to balloon. Taxpayers are on the hook to pay massive amounts to keep them running in their current forms. Medicare will gobble up ever-increasing amounts of national wealth — from 3.9 percent of gross domestic product this year to 6 percent by 2040 and 6.5 percent by 2070. If, as expected, Congress adjusts Medicare payments so that doctors continue to take Medicare patients, Medicare spending would expand to 8.6 percent of GDP by the end of the century.
与此同时，到2028年，为老年人住院支出提供资金的Medicare信托基金将告罄，而由一般税收支持的Medicare计划的其他部分支出将大幅增加。纳税人必须支付巨额资金，才能让其以目前的形式运转。医疗保险将吞噬越来越多的国家财富——从今年占国内生产总值的3.9%到2040年的6%，到2070年的6.5%。如果国会像预期的那样调整Medicare的支付方式，让医生继续接受Medicare的病人，到本世纪末，Medicare支出将扩大到GDP的8.6%。
These numbers may seem small. They are not; total federal spending has historically hovered around 20 percent of GDP. The trustees are projecting a vast expansion of outlays for the elderly that would hollow out the government’s ability to spend on education, infrastructure, anti-poverty programs and other investments in children and working-age adults.
这些数字可能看起来很小。但并不是这样；联邦总支出在历史上一直徘徊在GDP的20%左右。受托人预计大幅增加的养老支出将掏空政府在教育、基础设施、扶贫项目以及其他对儿童和工作年龄成年人的投资方面的能力。
In a more rational political moment, Congress would make the broader reforms needed to stabilize Medicare and Social Security. They have many options, and it is obvious that any plausible future settlement would require some mix of modest benefit adjustments and tax hikes. Time is precious, the trustees warned: “Taking action sooner rather than later will allow consideration of a broader range of solutions and provide more time to phase in changes so that the public has adequate time to prepare.”
在一个更加理性的政治时刻，国会将进行更广泛的改革，以稳定Medicare和社会保障。他们有很多选择，很明显，任何看似合理的未来解决方案都需要适度的福利调整和增税。受托人警告说，时间是宝贵的：“尽早采取行动将允许考虑更广泛的解决方案，并提供更多的时间来逐步进行改革，以便公众有足够的时间准备。”
The experts have, once again, projected a fiscal disaster on a generational scale. And yet fixing the problems are on just about no one’s to-do list in Washington. That is a scandal, and Americans — particularly young Americans who stand to lose the most — should demand better.
专家们再次预测，这将是一场世代规模的财政灾难。然而，解决这些问题几乎不在华盛顿任何政客的任务清单上。这是一桩丑闻，而美国人——尤其是可能损失最大的美国年轻人——应该要求更好的对待。