来源：《经济学人》
原文见刊日期：2022年1月9日
Observers have long poked fun at the inability of the economics profession to make up its mind. “If parliament were to ask six economists for an opinion, seven would come back,” runs one version of an old joke. Yet the gibes may be losing their force. A new paper, by Doris Geide-Stevenson and Alvaro La Parra Perez of Weber State University, finds that economists are agreeing with each other more on a number of policy-related questions.
长期以来，观察家们一直嘲笑经济学专业人士拿不定主意。“如果议会向六位经济学家征求意见，会得到七个答案，”一个老笑话的一个版本这样写道。然而，这些嘲讽可能正在失去力量。韦伯州立大学的多丽丝·盖德-史蒂文森和阿尔瓦罗·拉·帕拉·佩雷斯的一篇新论文发现，经济学家在一系列与政策相关的问题上越来越趋于一致。
The paper publishes the results of the latest wave of a survey of economists that has been conducted roughly once a decade since 1976. Members of the American Economic Association were asked whether they agreed with a number of propositions, ranging from the economic impact of minimum-wage increases to the desirability of universal health insurance. Based on the frequency of responses, the researchers devised an index that captured the degree of consensus on each question.
该论文公布了最新一波经济学家调查的结果，自1976年以来，该调查大约每十年进行一次。美国经济协会的成员被问及是否同意一些主张，从最低工资提高的经济影响到全民医疗保险的可取性。根据回答的频率，研究人员设计了一个指数来衡量每个问题的共识程度。
The results suggest that the extent of consensus has risen significantly. Economists were in strong agreement on about a third of the propositions in the latest wave, compared with around 15% in 2011 and less than 10% in 1990. Respondents were more united on their diagnosis of economic problems. And, strikingly, more of them were convinced of the need for muscular policy.
结果表明，共识的程度显著上升。经济学家在最近这波调查中对大约三分之一的主张达成了强烈一致，而在2011年和1990年这一比例分别为15%和不到10%。受访者对经济问题的诊断更为一致。而且，引人注目的是，他们中有更多的人相信有必要采取强硬政策。
Inequality was a growing concern. The share of respondents who wholly or somewhat agreed that the distribution of income in America should be more equal rose from 68% in 2000 to 86% in 2020-21. Fully 85% thought corporate power was too concentrated. Another worry was climate change, which most agreed posed a big risk to the economy.
不平等问题越来越令人担忧。完全或部分同意美国收入分配应该更加平等的受访者比例从2000年的68%上升到2020年到2021年的86%。足足有85%的人认为公司权力过于集中。另一个担忧是气候变化，大多数人认为气候变化对经济构成了巨大风险。
Unsurprisingly, given their views on market power, respondents’ support for a vigorous use of antitrust policy has increased markedly over the past two decades. Another notable change was in the enthusiasm for fiscal activism. More economists thought that the Federal Reserve alone could not manage the business cycle, and were keener on a bigger role for government. More of them also agreed that fiscal policy could have important economic effects, both during downturns and over the long term.
不出意外的是，鉴于受访者对市场力量的看法，过去20年，他们对大力使用反垄断政策的支持明显增加。另一个显著的变化是对财政激进主义的热情。更多的经济学家认为，仅靠美联储无法管理商业周期，他们更希望政府发挥更大的作用。他们中的更多人还同意，无论是在经济衰退期间还是从长期来看，财政政策都可能产生重要的经济影响。