来源：《经济学人》
原文见刊日期：2022年5月28日
Spring weather often brings a stampede of homebuyers. Blossoming flowers and gushing sunlight after the winter hard work make homes look more inviting. Not this year, though. Across the rich world house-hunters perturbed by high prices and rising rates are holding fire on mortgage applications. In America new home sales have crashed to two year lows.
春天的天气往往会导致购房者蜂拥而至。冬日的辛苦劳作过后，一朵朵鲜花和奔放的阳光让家看起来更诱人。不过，今年没有出现这种情况。在整个富裕世界，被高房价和不断上升的利率所困扰的购房者正在暂缓抵押贷款申请。在美国，新房销售已经跌至两年来的最低点。
One group of buyers, however, remains unfazed: Wall Street. What began as an opportunistic bet on single-family housing during America’s subprime crash of 2007-10 has evolved into a mainstream asset class. Today all sorts of institutions—from private-equity firms to insurers and pension funds—are piling into the sector. They are unlikely to vacate it: being a rentier looks as appealing as ever.
不过，有一群买家仍不为所动，那就是华尔街。在2007-2010年美国次贷危机期间，一种投机独栋住房的做法已经演变成了一种主流资产类别。如今，各种各样的机构——从私募股权公司到保险公司和养老基金——都在涌入这一领域。它们不太可能把房子卖掉：当包租公看起来像以前一样有吸引力。
One reason is that demand for rental homes will jump as home ownership gets costlier. American savers need on average $15,000 more than they did before the pandemic to afford a 10% downpayment. Higher borrowing costs are forcing millennials nearing their peak buying years into longer leases. This coincides with a larger trend fuelled by covid-19: a shift from flats towards suburban homes with gardens and office space—which many households cannot afford and must therefore rent.
其中一个原因是，随着买房变得更昂贵，租赁住房的需求将大幅上升。与疫情前相比，美国储户平均需要多花1.5万美元才能支付10%的首付。更高的借贷成本正迫使接近购房巅峰年龄的千禧一代延长租期。这与新冠疫情推动的一个更大趋势相吻合：从公寓转向有花园和办公空间的郊区住宅——许多家庭买不起，因此必须租。
A scarcity of housing will also help the rentiers. Despite a recent surge in investment, the market for single-family homes remains woefully undersupplied. America is short more than 5m homes for buyers and renters. England has more than 28 prospective tenants for every available property. Big institutions are building their way out of constrained supply. In America, more than one in four new properties added to the portfolios of single-family rental providers in the final quarter of 2021 were built rather than bought. In Britain, investors are projected to supply a tenth of the government’s target for new housing in the next few years.
住房的稀缺也会帮助出租者。尽管近期投资激增，但独栋住宅市场仍然严重供应不足。美国买租住房的缺口超过500万套。英格兰的每一处房产都有超过28名潜在租户。大型机构正在努力摆脱供应受限的局面。在美国，在2021年的最后一个季度，独栋租赁提供商的投资组合里新增的房产中，超过四分之一是建造的，而不是购买的。在英国，预计投资者将在未来几年提供政府新住房目标的十分之一。
This helps explain the sector’s resilience. While landlords of shops, bars and restaurants struggled to collect payments at the start of the pandemic, strong demand for single-family homes pushed rents through the roof. In America, they rose by 13% in the 12 months to March 2022. In Miami, they jumped by more than 40%. Rents held up relatively well during the global financial crisis; in some markets they even grew. That is helping to reassure investors as a recession looms.
这有助于解释独栋住宅行业的韧性。在疫情爆发之初，商店、酒吧和餐馆的房东难以收回租金，但对独栋住宅的强劲需求推动租金飙升。在美国，截至2022年3月的12个月里，租金上升了13%。在迈阿密，租金上涨了40%以上。在全球金融危机期间，租金相对坚挺；在一些市场，租金甚至还在增长。在经济衰退临近之际，这有助于安抚投资者。