来源：《经济学人》
原文见刊日期：2022年7月23日
Though Britons are by no means the worst affected by the heatwaves now sweeping the northern hemisphere, they have been in awe of a particular round number: 40°C. This is an air temperature never before recorded in the United Kingdom. But it was matched and exceeded in several places on July 19th.
虽然英国人并不是受席卷北半球热浪影响最严重的，但他们对一个特定的约整数感到敬畏：40°C。这是英国从未有过的气温记录。但在7月19日，几个地方达到或超过这个温度。
Heatwaves are nothing new. But they have become more frequent and more extreme, and more often coincide in different places. A recent study found there are now seven times as many days of simultaneous heatwaves in the northern hemisphere as there were four decades ago. That simultaneity is partly a statistical inevitability: more heatwaves mean that more will occur jointly.
热浪并不是什么新鲜事。但它们已经变得更频繁、更极端，而且经常在不同的地方同时出现。最近的一项研究发现，与40年前相比，现在北半球同时出现热浪的天数是40年前的7倍。这种同时性在一定程度上是统计上的必然：更多的热浪意味着更多的热浪将共同发生。
Increased intensity and frequency is bad enough. Increased simultaneity may have even more baleful consequences. Heatwaves damage agriculture. Simultaneous disruption of plantings or harvests in different places could create crises that cannot be dealt with by moving produce around the world, because there is less to move.
强度和频率增加已经够糟糕的了。同时性的增加可能会带来更严重的后果。热浪损害农业。在不同的地方同时破坏种植或收获可能会造成危机，而这种危机无法通过在世界各地转移农产品来解决，因为可转移的农产品更少了。
The latest heatwaves have also emphasised how built environments are designed for a past climate. To use Britain, again, as an example, parts of the rail network came close to paralysis because the rails on British track beds are optimised to be stress-free at 27°C. Temperatures in the high 30s are outside their comfort zone. Rails can be changed as societies adapt to rising temperatures. But the cost and disruption of upgrading all the infrastructure that will need it, from houses to hospitals, will be immense. Even in rich countries, governments struggle to commit the necessary resources.
最新的热浪也突出了建筑环境是如何针对过去的气候而设计的。再次以英国为例，部分铁路网几近瘫痪，因为英国道床上的钢轨经过优化，在27°C时无应力。30多度的高温已经超出了适用范围。随着社会适应不断上升的气温，轨道可以改变。但是，从房屋到医院，升级所有需要的基础设施的成本破坏将是巨大的。即使在富裕国家，政府也难以投入必要的资源。
In poor countries things will be worse. They have less cash to pay for adaptation and more need of it, not least because they tend to be near the equator, in zones where heatwaves can push temperatures to unsurvivable levels. They also tend to have high population growth, meaning more and more people will be affected.
在贫穷国家，情况会更糟。它们用于适应气候变化的资金更少，而对适应气候变化的需求更大，尤其是因为它们往往位于赤道附近，那里的热浪会将温度推高到无法承受的水平。它们的人口增长速度也很快，这意味着越来越多的人将受到影响。
A further irony is that in some cases applying technology to adapt to higher temperatures, in the form of air conditioning for inappropriately designed buildings, increases demand for electricity. In Britain, just this week, such demand has risen by 5% compared with the previous week. This is fine if the juice used comes from green sources. But if it originates in fossil-fuel power stations, it will, itself, accelerate global warming.
更讽刺的是，在某些情况下，应用技术来适应更高的温度，比如为设计不当的建筑安装空调，会增加对电力的需求。在英国，就在本周，电力需求比前一周上升了5%。如果使用的电力来自绿色来源，这是没问题的。但如果它源自化石燃料发电站，它本身就会加速全球变暖。
Adaptation, to this and other manifestations of a changing climate, is a crucial spanner in the toolkit. But it does not exempt people from addressing the problem at source, by encouraging green power-generating and energy-saving technologies and discouraging and decommissioning the “brown” sort. If this summer’s heatwaves inspire action in that direction, the suffering and loss of life will not have been entirely in vain.
适应气候变化以及气候变化的其他表现形式，是工具箱中一个至关重要的扳手。但这并不能免除人们从根源上解决问题的责任，通过鼓励绿色发电和节能技术，阻止和淘汰“棕色”能源。如果今年夏天的热浪促使人们朝着这个方向采取行动，那么生命的痛苦和损失就不会完全是徒劳的。