来源：《自然》
刊登日期：2021年4月20日
Last week, seven European countries pledged to stop support for fossil-fuel projects abroad. They join the United States and other European countries in stopping funding for energy infrastructure projects in poor countries that depend on coal, gas and oil. This blanket ban will entrench poverty in regions such as sub-Saharan Africa, but do little to reduce the world’s carbon emissions.
上周，七个欧洲国家承诺停止对海外化石燃料项目的支持。他们加入美国和其他欧洲国家的行列，停止为依赖煤炭、天然气和石油的贫穷国家的能源基础设施项目提供资金。这一全面禁令将固化撒哈拉以南非洲等地区的贫困情况，但对减少全球碳排放收效甚微。
Africa accounts for around 17% of the world’s people but less than 4% of annual global carbon emissions. It is not fair for rich countries to fight climate change at the cost of low-income countries’ development and climate resilience. Instead, rich countries should help African governments to pursue a broad portfolio of energy sources for rapid, sustainable development.
非洲人口约占世界人口的17%，但每年的碳排放却不到全球的4%。富裕国家以牺牲低收入国家的发展和适应气候变化的能力为代价来应对气候变化是不公平的。相反，富裕国家应该帮助非洲政府寻求多元的能源投资组合，以实现快速、可持续的发展。
The fossil-fuel infrastructure that already exists in Africa is carbon-intensive and serves its wealthiest countries. South Africa and several North African countries together hold two-thirds of the continent’s electricity-generation capacity. The other 48 countries have a capacity of only 81 gigawatts between them, out of a total of 244 gigawatts across Africa. The average Ethiopian consumes only 130 kilowatt-hours of electricity per year, about the amount the average person in the United States consumes in 4 days.
非洲现有的化石燃料基础设施是碳密集型的，服务于非洲大陆上最富裕的几个国家。南非和几个北非国家合计拥有非洲大陆三分之二的发电能力。其他48个国家的装机容量只有81千兆瓦，而整个非洲的装机容量为244千兆瓦。埃塞俄比亚人均每年只消耗130度电，大约是一个美国人4天的用电量。
For hundreds of millions of people across Africa, energy is scarce, food is expensive and often imported, and full-time employment is hard to find. Much of what is necessary for development — roads, schools, housing, reliable power — cannot be realized quickly with green power alone.
对于非洲各地数以亿计的人来说，能源匮乏，食品昂贵，而且往往需要进口，全职工作也很难找到。许多发展所必需的东西——道路、学校、住房、可靠的电力——仅靠绿色能源是无法迅速实现的。
Natural gas is a fossil fuel, but it could do much to lift communities out of poverty efficiently. It is abundant in many African countries outside North Africa. It is estimated that if the 48 countries tripled their electricity consumption overnight through use of natural gas, the resulting carbon emissions would be less than 1% of the global total.
天然气是一种化石燃料，但它能有效地帮助非洲社会摆脱贫困。它在北非以外的许多非洲国家储藏都很丰富。据估计，如果这48个国家通过使用天然气一夜之间将电力消耗增加了两倍，那么由此产生的碳排放量将不到全球总量的1%。
Natural gas also offers the best way to modernize food production and transport. It is reliable, inexpensive and burns more cleanly than other fossil fuels. It is one of the best materials for producing synthetic fertilizer; it can power cars, buses, trucks and ships, plus cold-storage systems. That means less food will spoil, and farmers can supply more food with less land.
天然气也是实现粮食生产和运输现代化的最佳途径。它可靠，价格低廉，比其他化石燃料燃烧更清洁。它是生产化肥的最佳原料之一；它可以为汽车、公交车、卡车和轮船以及冷链系统提供动力。这意味着更少的食物会变质，农民可以用更少的土地供应更多的食物。
A blanket ban on fossil fuels will do little to propel growth of renewable energies across Africa. A 2020 PhD thesis found that ‘dispatchable’ gas-fuelled generators that are movable would be essential for South Africa to transition to renewable electricity, because wind and solar sources would be too variable as they were scaled up. And there is risk in scaling up too fast — the intermittent supply from a large wind farm in Kenya has made the electrical grid costly to operate.
全面禁止化石燃料将无助于推动整个非洲的可再生能源增长。一篇2020年的博士论文发现，可移动的“可调度”天然气燃料发电机对南非向可再生电力转型至关重要，因为风能和太阳能在扩大规模时将变得太不稳定。而且，规模扩张过快也存在风险——肯尼亚一个大型风电场的间歇性供应使得电网运营成本高昂。
Critics will counter that those with interests in fossil fuels will attempt to squeeze out renewable sources, and that governments might be captured by fossil-fuel lobbies. I understand these concerns, but fossil fuels are still necessary. International finance institutions must prioritize funding for renewable-energy projects whenever possible, and rich countries must invest in research and development that will bring down the costs of renewable energy. They must also not discount the plight of poverty. As natural disasters and other climate risks become more common, people’s need for roads, hospitals, resilient power grids, warning systems, robust food supplies and other infrastructure that requires reliable energy will be even greater.
批评者会反驳说，化石燃料利益团体会试图将可再生能源排除在外，而政府可能会被化石燃料游说集团影响。我理解这些担忧，但化石燃料仍然是必要的。国际金融机构必须尽可能优先为可再生能源项目提供资金，富裕国家必须投资于研发，以降低可再生能源的成本。他们也不能忽视贫困的困境。随着自然灾害和其他气候风险变得越来越普遍，人们对道路、医院、有恢复力的电网、预警系统、充足的粮食供应和其他需要可靠能源的基础设施的需求将会更大。
Rather than banning fossil fuels in development projects, the European Union, United States and World Bank should adopt funding criteria that consider economic growth alongside climate impact. Most of the legacy emissions causing global warming came from rich countries, which still rely on fossil fuels. It would be the height of climate injustice to impose restrictions on the nations most in need of modern infrastructure and least responsible for the world’s climate challenges.
欧盟、美国和世界银行不应禁止在发展项目中使用化石燃料，而应采用将经济增长与气候影响一并考虑的资助标准。造成全球变暖的大部分遗留排放来自富裕国家，这些国家仍然依赖化石燃料。对最需要现代基础设施、全球气候责任最小的国家施加限制，将是极端的气候不公。