来源：《福布斯》杂志2022年2月3月双月刊
If you want to see the future of cryptocurrencies, look at Turkey. Its currency, the lira, is plunging in value, down 40% against the dollar since September. The official inflation rate—which the Turks don’t trust—is 36% and rising. That’s why desperate people there are diving into crypto-currencies. Bitcoin is highly volatile and has taken a hit recently, but Turkish buyers feel its long-term value is upward, as it has been since its inception.
如果你想了解加密货币的未来，不妨看看土耳其。其货币里拉正在大幅贬值，自去年9月以来对美元贬值了40%。官方的通货膨胀率是36%，而且还在上升，土耳其人对此并不信任，认为实际通胀率比这个数据更高。这就是为什么绝望的人们开始投身加密货币。比特币非常不稳定，最近受到了冲击，但土耳其买家认为它的长期价值正在上升，就像它自诞生以来一直如此。
What’s really interesting—and what should give central bankers everywhere pause—is that the favorite crypto in Turkey currently is Tether. Why? Because Tether is a “stablecoin,” a class of crypto that’s tied to a specific asset—in Tether’s case, the U.S. dollar.
真正有趣的是，应该让各国央行行长思考的是，目前土耳其最受欢迎的加密货币是Tether。为什么？因为Tether是一种“稳定币”，是一种与特定资产挂钩的加密货币——Tether的锚定资产是美元。
A stablecoin, properly structured and transparent about the actual assets backing it up, will become an alternative to government money. Its very stability makes it usable for commercial transactions, especially ones involving long-term contracts.
一个结构合理、支持它的实际资产透明的稳定币将成为政府资金的替代品。其稳定性使其可用于商业交易，特别是涉及长期合同的交易。
Sensing just such a threat, Turkey’s government last year banned cryptocurrencies as a form of payment. But such prohibitions will ultimately fail. The attraction of cryptos is precisely that they avoid traditional banking and financial payment systems. People prize their speed and the privacy they offer from greedy governments.
土耳其政府察觉到了这种威胁，去年禁止将加密货币作为一种支付形式。但这样的禁令最终会失败。加密货币的吸引力恰恰在于它们避开了传统的银行和金融支付系统。人们珍视它们的速度和从贪婪的政府那里夺回的隐私。
When people don’t trust their domestic currencies, they find more trustworthy substitutes. That’s why the dollar, for all its troubles, is still preferred around the world to local junk currencies. Over half of all dollars in circulation are being used outside the United States.
当人们不信任本国货币时，他们会找到更值得信赖的替代品。这就是为什么美元尽管面临种种麻烦，但在世界各地仍比当地垃圾货币更受欢迎。超过一半的流通美元在美国境外使用。
The situation in Turkey is particularly instructive. Strongman Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s central bank has been printing too many lira. The basic money supply in Turkey has increased 50% in the past year. Instead of cooling off the printing presses, Erdoğan has scapegoated food vendors, evil foreigners and others, while demanding that the Turkish central bank lower interest rates. Similar to governments for thousands of years, Turkey’s is attacking the symptoms, not the real causes, of its inflationary problems.
土耳其的情况尤其具有启发性。铁腕人物雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安的央行一直在大量印刷里拉。土耳其的基本货币供应量在过去一年增加了50%。埃尔多安没有给印钞机降温，而是把食品商贩、邪恶的外国人和其他人当成替罪羊，同时要求土耳其央行降低利率。与数千年来的政府一样，土耳其现政府解决通胀问题是治标不治本。
It’s no wonder that two-thirds of bank deposits in Turkey are denominated in foreign currencies, primarily the dollar and the euro. The fear is that a desperate government may seize those deposits and replace them with Turkish lira.
难怪土耳其三分之二的银行存款以外币计价，主要是美元和欧元。令人担心的是，绝望的政府可能会没收这些存款，并用土耳其里拉取而代之。
To shore up the beleaguered lira, Turkey this past December introduced a scheme whereby in special lira savings accounts the government would guarantee to make up any depreciation of the lira against the dollar. But again, Turks are increasingly skeptical of such government promises. Hence the growing move into cryptocurrencies.
为了支撑陷入困境的里拉，土耳其在去年12月推出了一项计划，在特别的里拉储蓄账户中，政府将保证弥补里拉兑美元的任何贬值。但同样，土耳其人越来越怀疑政府的承诺。因此，越来越多的人转向加密货币。
Turkey is an extreme example regarding inflation. But the U.S. and other countries are also moving—albeit more slowly—in the wrong direction. The process of stable cryptos challenging governments’ monopoly of money is just beginning.
土耳其是通货膨胀的一个极端例子。但美国和其他国家也在朝着错误的方向前进——尽管速度较慢。稳定的加密货币挑战政府垄断货币的进程才刚刚开始。