来源：《Science》
原文见刊日期：2022年4月29日
In March, the UN Environment Assembly adopted a resolution to combat plastic pollution with a global and legally binding plastics treaty by 2024. The treaty included many of the ambitious provisions, such as a consideration of the whole plastic life cycle and binding targets. However, it is unclear whether the treaty will include a cap on production or cover plastic chemicals. Despite interventions by the industry and objections from the United States and other delegations, reducing plastics at the source by curbing production is critical.
今年3月，联合国环境大会通过了一项决议，在2024年之前通过一项具有法律约束力的全球塑料条约来对抗塑料污染。该条约包括许多雄心勃勃的条款，如考虑到塑料的整个生命周期和有约束力的目标。然而，目前尚不清楚该条约是否将包括生产上限或涵盖塑料化学品。尽管塑料行业进行了干预，美国和其他代表团也表示反对，但通过限制生产从源头上减少塑料还是至关重要的。
The current mass of plastic production is at about 450 million tons annually and set to double by 2045. The immense quantity and diversity of both plastics and plastic chemicals, the total weight of which exceeds the overall mass of all land and marine animals, already poses enormous challenges. Ensuring the safety of every available plastic and chemical is impossible, as their rates of appearance in the environment exceed governments’ capacities to assess associated risks and control problems. Plastic pollutants have altered vital Earth system processes to an extent that exceeds the threshold under which humanity can survive in the future. Because legacy plastics in the environment break down into micro- and nanoparticles, this form of pollution is irretrievable and irreversible. In addition to the risks for human and environmental health, the whole life cycle of plastic accounts for 4.5% of our current greenhouse gas emissions and could consume 10 to 13% of our remaining carbon dioxide budget by 2050. The growing production and inevitable emissions of plastics will exacerbate these problems.
目前塑料的年产量约为4.5亿吨，到2045年将翻一番。塑料和塑料化学品的数量和多样性巨大，其总重量超过所有陆地和海洋动物的总重量，已经构成了巨大的挑战。要确保每一种可用的塑料和化学品的安全是不可能的，因为它们在环境中的出现率超出了政府评估相关风险和控制问题的能力。塑料污染物已经改变了重要的地球系统过程，其程度已经超过了人类未来能够生存的阈值。因为环境中的遗留塑料会分解成微粒子和纳米颗粒，这种污染是无法挽回和不可逆的。除了对人类和环境健康的风险外，塑料的整个生命周期占我们目前温室气体排放的4.5%，到2050年可能消耗我们剩余二氧化碳预算的10%至13%。塑料生产的增长和不可避免的排放将加剧这些问题。
Failing to address production will lead to more dependence on flawed and insufficient strategies. Some waste management technologies, such as forms of thermal and chemical recycling, cause socioeconomic and environmental harm. Much of the plastic waste is currently exported from the North to the Global South, which poses a substantial threat to marginalized and vulnerable communities and their environments. Even when applying all political and technological solutions available today, including substitution, improved recycling, waste management, and circularity, annual plastic emissions to the environment can only be cut by 79% over 20 years; after 2040, 17.3 million tons of plastic waste will still be released to terrestrial and aquatic environments every year. To fully prevent plastic pollution, the path forward must include a phaseout of virgin plastic production by 2040.
不能解决生产问题将导致更多地依赖有缺陷和不充分的战略。一些废物管理技术，例如各种形式的热回收和化学回收，会造成社会经济和环境危害。目前，许多塑料垃圾从北半球出口到南半球，这对边缘化和弱势社区及其环境构成重大威胁。即使采用目前可用的所有政治和技术解决方案，包括替代、改进回收、废物管理和循环，在20年内，每年对环境的塑料排放也只能减少79%；2040年以后，每年仍将有1730万吨塑料垃圾排放到陆地和水生环境中。为了全面防止塑料污染，前进的道路必须包括到2040年逐步淘汰原生塑料生产。