来源：《新科学家》
原文见刊日期：2022年10月1日
本文适合2024考生
More than $1 trillion of investment is required to decarbonise the shipping industry by 2050, according to a report released at the Global Maritime Forum summit in New York.
根据在纽约举行的全球海事论坛峰会上发布的一份报告，到2050年，要实现航运业的脱碳，需要超过1万亿美元的投资。
The shipping industry is responsible for about 3 per cent of total global greenhouse gas emissions. Most of the industry’s emissions come from fossil fuels burned to propel the more than 100,000 large ships on the ocean – and total emissions could more than double by 2050 without efforts to decarbonise.
航运业约占全球温室气体排放总量的3%。该行业的大部分排放来自燃烧化石燃料，用以驱动10万多艘大型船舶在海上航行，如果不努力脱碳，到2050年，航运业总排放量可能不止翻一番。
Improving energy efficiency could significantly reduce emissions from shipping, but fully decarbonising requires replacing fossil fuels outright with zero-emissions fuels produced using renewable energy, says Domagoj Baresic at University Maritime Advisory Services, a shipping consultancy in the UK.
英国航运咨询公司大学海事咨询服务的多马戈·巴雷西奇表示，提高能源效率可能会显著减少航运的排放，但要实现完全脱碳，就需要用可再生能源生产的零排放燃料彻底取代化石燃料。
Baresic and Katharine Palmer at Lloyd’s Register, a maritime services company in the UK, considered what progress the shipping industry has made so far, focusing on what they call a “breakthrough” target of using zero-emission fuel for 5 per cent of international and 15 per cent of domestic shipping fuels by 2030.
巴雷西奇和英国航运服务公司劳合社的凯瑟琳•帕尔默考虑了航运业迄今取得的进展，并将重点放在它们所谓的“突破性”目标上，即到2030年，零排放燃料在国际航运燃料中所占比例为5%，在国内航运中所占比例为15%。
“Even though 5 per cent sounds small, it implies that all of the necessary conditions start being in place” for rapidly increasing use of zero-emission fuel from that point on, says Baresic. Almost no zero-emission fuel is currently used for shipping, he says.
巴雷西奇表示，“尽管5%听起来很小，但这意味着所有必要的条件都已具备”，从那一刻起，零排放燃料的使用将迅速增加。他说，目前几乎没有零排放燃料用于航运。
The International Maritime Organization, the UN agency that regulates international shipping, has adopted a strategy to reduce shipping emissions by 50 per cent by 2050. A more ambitious plan to reduce shipping emissions by 100 per cent by 2050 has been signed by at least 14 countries, including the US and the UK.
负责监管国际航运的联合国机构国际海事组织已采取一项战略，希望到2050年将航运排放减少50%。包括美国和英国在内的至少14个国家签署了一项更雄心勃勃的计划，即到2050年将航运排放减少100%。
Despite commitments, the industry is only “partially on track” towards the 2030 targets, the report finds. “Now we’re at that stage where it’s about seeing commitments turn into real-world actions,” says Baresic. “Is the money there? Are we actually seeing the construction of the ships and the infrastructure?”
报告发现，尽管做出了承诺，但航运业仅“部分走上了”实现2030年目标的轨道。巴雷西奇说：“现在我们正处于看到承诺变成现实行动的阶段。钱在那儿吗？我们真的看到船只和基础设施的建造了吗？”
The report counts at least 203 green shipping pilot projects underway but says those must now translate to longer-term commitments, such as investments in zero-emission fuel infrastructure. Some ships could be powered with electric batteries, nuclear power or even wind-powered sails, though the report considers zero-emission fuels to be the central strategy.
该报告统计了至少203个正在进行的绿色航运试点项目，但表示这些项目现在必须转化为长期承诺，例如投资零排放燃料基础设施。尽管报告认为零排放燃料是核心战略，但一些船舶可以用电池、核能甚至风力帆来驱动。
Twenty-two countries have also committed to create six zero-emissions shipping routes by 2025, which could help create the infrastructure needed to scale up green shipping.
22个国家还承诺到2025年建立6条零排放航线，这可能有助于建立扩大绿色航运所需的基础设施。
In all, the report estimates that decarbonising global shipping by 2050 would require between $1 trillion and $1.4 trillion of investment. “It’s a big number,” says Baresic, but it would derive from global investments from many industries spread over decades. “Now we’ve got a common destination,” says Palmer. “The question is how fast will we go there.”
报告估计，到2050年实现全球航运的脱碳将需要1万亿到1.4万亿美元的投资。“这是一个很大的数字，”巴雷西奇说，但它将来自未来数十年来许多行业的全球投资。“现在我们有了一个共同的目标，”帕尔默说。“问题是我们将以多快的速度实现这一目标。”