来源：《自然》
原文刊登日期：2023年1月4日
The number of science and technology research papers published has skyrocketed over the past few decades — but the ‘disruptiveness’ of those papers has dropped, according to an analysis of how radically papers depart from the previous literature.
在过去的几十年中，发表的科学技术研究论文数量急剧增加，但根据一项对论文与以往文献有多大差异的分析，这些论文的“颠覆性”有所下降。
Data from millions of manuscripts show that, compared with mid-twentieth-century research, that done in the 2000s was much more likely to push science forward incrementally than to veer off in a new direction and render previous work obsolete. Analysis of patents from 1976 to 2010 showed the same trend.
来自数百万份原稿的数据表明，与二十世纪中期的研究相比，本世纪头十年完成的研究更有可能推动科学逐步向前发展，而不是转向一个新的方向，使以前的工作过时。对1976年至2010年的专利分析也显示出同样的趋势。
“The data suggest something is changing,” says Russell Funk, a sociologist at the University of Minnesota and a co-author of the analysis. “You don’t have quite the same intensity of breakthrough discoveries you once had.”
“数据表明事情正在发生变化，”明尼苏达大学社会学家、该分析报告的合著者拉塞尔·芬克说。“现在的突破性发现不像以前那么密集了。”
The authors reasoned that if a study was highly disruptive, subsequent research would be less likely to cite the study’s references, and instead would cite the study itself. Using the citation data from 45 million manuscripts and 3.9 million patents, the researchers calculated a measure of disruptiveness, called the CD index.
作者推断，如果一项研究具有高度颠覆性，后续研究就不太可能引用该研究的参考文献，而是引用该研究本身。研究人员利用4500万份原稿和390万项专利的引用数据，计算出了一种被称为CD指数的颠覆性指标。
The average CD index declined by more than 90% between 1945 and 2010 for research manuscripts, and by more than 78% from 1980 to 2010 for patents.
从1945年到2010年，研究手稿的平均CD指数下降了90%以上，从1980年到2010年，专利的平均CD指数下降了78%以上。
The authors also analysed the most common verbs used in manuscripts and found that whereas research in the 1950s was more likely to use words evoking creation or discovery such as ‘produce’ or ‘determine’, that done in the 2010s was more likely to refer to incremental progress, using terms such as ‘improve’ or ‘enhance’.
作者还分析了原稿中最常用的动词，发现20世纪50年代的研究更倾向于使用“produce”或“determine”等引发创造感或发现感的词汇，而2010年代的研究则更倾向于用“improve”或“enhance”等词汇来指代渐进的进步。
Disruptiveness is not inherently good, and incremental science is not necessarily bad. The first direct observation of gravitational waves, for example, was both revolutionary and the product of incremental science.
颠覆性并不必然是好事，渐进式科学也不一定是坏事。例如，第一次直接观测到引力波既是革命性的，也是渐进科学的产物。
The ideal is a healthy mix of incremental and disruptive research, says John Walsh, a specialist in science and technology policy at the Georgia Institute of Technology. “In a world where we’re concerned with the validity of findings, it might be a good thing to have more replication,” he says.
乔治亚理工学院科技政策专家约翰•沃尔什表示，理想状态是渐进式研究和颠覆性研究的健康结合。他说：“在一个我们关注研究结果有效性的世界里，有更多的重复可能是一件好事。”
It is important to understand the reasons for the drastic changes, Walsh says. The trend might stem in part from changes in the scientific enterprise. For example, there are now many more researchers than in the 1940s, which has created a more competitive environment and raised the stakes to publish research and seek patents. That, in turn, has changed the incentives for how researchers go about their work. Large research teams, for example, have become more common, and big teams are more likely to produce incremental than disruptive science.
沃尔什说，了解这些剧烈变化的原因很重要。这种趋势可能部分源于科学事业的变化。例如，现在的研究人员比20世纪40年代多得多，这创造了一个更具竞争性的环境，提高了发表研究成果和申请专利的利益攸关性。这反过来又改变了研究人员开展工作的动机。例如，大型研究团队已经变得越来越普遍，大团队更有可能产生渐进式科学而不是颠覆性科学。
Finding an explanation for the decline won’t be easy, Walsh says. Although the proportion of disruptive research dropped significantly between 1945 and 2010, the number of highly disruptive studies has remained about the same. The rate of decline is also puzzling: CD indices fell steeply from 1945 to 1970, then more gradually from the late 1990s to 2010. “Whatever explanation you have for disruptiveness dropping off, you need to also make sense of it levelling off” in the 2000s, he says.
沃尔什说，要找到这种下降的原因并不容易。尽管在1945年至2010年间，颠覆性研究的比例显著下降，但高度颠覆性研究的数量基本保持不变。下降的速度也令人费解：CD指数从1945年到1970年急剧下降，然后从1990年代末到2010年更为缓慢。他说：“无论你对颠覆性下降有什么解释，你都需要弄清楚它在2000年代趋于稳定。”