来源：《哈佛商业评论》2023年3月4月双月刊
The public increasingly expects companies to take a stand on political matters, but doing so is fraught: It risks alienating consumers who disagree with the position taken. At the same time, companies may pick up support from consumers who share their point of view. New research documents how those dynamics played out for one firm: the Latin foods brand Goya.
公众越来越希望企业在政治问题上表明立场，但这样做令人担忧：它有疏远持不同立场的消费者的风险。与此同时，公司可能会从与其观点相同的消费者那里获得支持。新的研究记录了这些动态如何在一家公司中发挥作用：拉丁食品品牌戈雅。
In July 2020, CEO Robert Unanue paid a visit to the White House during which he praised President Donald Trump. His comments energized consumers on both ends of the political spectrum, and hashtags such as #goyaway and #BoycottGoya, on the one hand, and #BuyGoya and #BuycottGoya, on the other, began trending on Twitter. Media accounts suggested that sales had dropped significantly, while Unanue said that purchases were up by 1,000%.
2020年7月，该公司首席执行官罗伯特·乌纳纽访问白宫，并称赞了唐纳德·特朗普总统。他的言论激发了政治光谱两端的消费者，#滚出去戈雅(#goyaway)和#抵制戈雅(#BoycottGoya)，以及#买戈雅(#BuyGoya)和#暴买戈雅(#BuycottGoya)等话题标签开始在Twitter上流行。媒体报道称，销量大幅下降，而乌纳纽表示，销量增长了1000%。
To see which claim was closer to the truth, the researchers gathered demographic and purchase data on 33,486 households that had bought one or more Goya products in 2019 or 2020 and mapped it against county-level results from the 2020 presidential election. They also tracked coverage of the controversy. The boycotting narrative overwhelmingly dominated in both traditional and social media, but instead of falling, sales increased by an average of 22% in the two weeks after Unanue’s visit. During that time they nearly doubled in Republican-leaning counties, largely owing to first-time buyers demonstrating their solidarity. They rose slightly for four weeks even in heavily Democratic counties, which have historically formed the core of the company’s consumer base, before dipping significantly below their usual levels in those places in weeks five to eight. By week nine, sales across the board had more or less returned to the baseline.
为了弄清楚哪种说法更接近事实，研究人员收集了33486户家庭的人口统计和购买数据，这些家庭在2019年或2020年购买了一种或多种戈雅产品，并将其与2020年总统大选的县级结果进行对比。他们还追踪了对这一争议的报道。抵制叙事在传统媒体和社交媒体上都占据了压倒性的优势，但在乌纳纽访问白宫后的两周内，销售额不仅没有下降，反而平均增长了22%。在此期间，在倾向共和党的县，销售额几乎翻了一番，这主要是因为首次购买者表现出了他们的团结。即使是在民主党支持率较高的县(这些县历来是该公司消费者基础的核心)，销售额也连续四周小幅上升，然后在第五至第八周大幅低于这些地区的正常水平。到第9周，整体销量或多或少回到了基线水平。
“Buycott movements have an unbounded potential upside since anyone can participate,” the researchers explain, “whereas boycott movements are constrained in that only existing customers” can join in—in Goya’s case, just 7% of U.S. households. Further, the study found no evidence of any boycotting of Goya’s spice mixes, which have few alternatives in the marketplace. “Both the risks and benefits to a firm of engaging in political discourse may be overblown,” the researchers write. “Goya’s most valuable customers did not change their purchase behavior in meaningful ways, which may provide some reassurance to other brands, especially those that sell unique products with few close substitutes.”
研究人员解释说：“Buycott运动具有无限的潜在好处，因为任何人都可以参与，而抵制运动则受到限制，因为只有现有的客户”可以参与——在戈雅的例子中，只有7%的美国家庭可以参与。此外，该研究没有发现任何抵制戈雅香料的证据，因为市场上几乎没有其他选择。研究人员写道：“企业参与政治论述的风险和收益可能都被夸大了。”“戈雅最有价值的客户并没有以有意义的方式改变他们的购买行为，这可能会给其他品牌带来一些宽慰，尤其是那些销售独特产品、几乎没有同类产品的品牌。”