来源：《经济学人》
原文见刊日期：2023年3月18日
Texas keeps getting bigger. In the year to June 2022 the Lone Star State added 471,000 people, nearly as many as live in Atlanta, Georgia. More than one in three of the net new jobs created in America since February 2020 was created there. A thriving energy industry has helped, but the boom is remarkably broad-based. Sometime in the 2040s, Texas is likely to pass California in population. Like it or not, America is becoming a bit more Texan every day.
德州越来越大。截至2022年6月的一年里，这个孤星之州增加了47.1万人，几乎和佐治亚州亚特兰大的人口一样多。自2020年2月以来，美国创造的净新增就业岗位中，超过三分之一是在德州创造的。蓬勃发展的能源行业起到了一定作用，但这种繁荣的基础非常广泛。在本世纪40年代的某个时候，德克萨斯州的人口可能会超过加利福尼亚州。不管你喜不喜欢，美国每天都在变得越来越德克萨斯化。
With 38 members of Congress and 40 electoral-college votes in 2024 (around 15% of those required to win the presidency), Texas will have a mighty say in national politics. If people and firms continue moving there, as looks likely, Texas will take on an even greater prominence in the American economy. It will also influence how the country navigates its energy transition, because Texas leads not just in oil and gas but also in renewables such as wind and solar. And America’s demography will increasingly resemble that of Texas today (where, already, 60% of the population is nonwhite).
德州在2024年拥有38名国会议员和40张选举人票(约占赢得总统大选所需选票的15%)，在美国政治中拥有强大的话语权。如果人们和企业继续迁往那里(看起来很有可能)，德克萨斯州将在美国经济中占据更重要的地位。它还将影响美国能源转型的方向，因为德克萨斯州不仅在石油和天然气方面领先，而且在风能和太阳能等可再生能源方面也领先。美国的人口结构将越来越像今天的德克萨斯州(德克萨斯州已经有60%的人口是非白人)。
If Texas points to the future, what lessons does it offer? One is that its leaders understood earlier than most that companies and people are mobile. Rick Perry, a former governor, went on “hunting trips” in search of business prey in other states; Greg Abbott, today’s governor, has followed suit. Covid-19 highlighted the attractions of a state which was quicker to leave lockdown than many others, and boasts a cheaper cost of living and fewer restrictions. Texas has offered some incentives to firms, but much of the growth has been down to the lure of a place with no income tax, lots of land for expansion, less red tape and a pro-business attitude. Granted, liberals and moderates abhor the state’s shrill, deep-red politics. Mr Abbott courts headlines by, for example, sending busloads of unauthorised immigrants to New York. Such stunts do not seem to have deterred many individuals or companies from moving to Texas, however.
如果德克萨斯州指向未来，它能提供什么经验？其一，德州领导人比大多数人更早地意识到公司和人员是流动的。前州长里克·佩里在其他州进行“狩猎之旅”，寻找商业猎物；今天的州长格雷格·阿博特也紧随其后。新冠疫情突出了德州的吸引力，德州比其他州更快地解除封锁，并以生活成本更低和限制更少而自豪。德克萨斯州为企业提供了一些激励措施，但大部分增长都归功于一个没有所得税、有大量扩张土地、减少繁文缛节和亲商态度的地方的诱惑。诚然，自由派和温和派深恶痛绝德州强硬的深红色政治。例如，阿博特将一车非法移民送往纽约，以此吸引媒体的关注。然而，这样的作为似乎并没有阻止许多个人或公司搬到德克萨斯州。
Another lesson from Texas is that nurturing one golden goose is not enough. The oil shock of the 1980s was painful, but the state has since diversified its economy. Finance and property have blossomed. The big cities all have different strengths: tech in Austin, energy in Houston, finance and more in Dallas. Instead of relying solely on oil and gas until the wells run dry, Texas has positioned itself on the cutting edge of new energy technologies (although listening to the rhetoric of the state’s politicians, you would not always know it). Places that have only one strong industry should start thinking about how they can use it as a platform to launch the next new thing.
德州的另一个经验是，只培养一只金鹅是不够的。20世纪80年代的石油危机是痛苦的，但德州政府已经使其经济多样化。金融和房地产蓬勃发展。大城市都有不同的优势：奥斯汀有科技，休斯顿有能源，达拉斯有金融等。德克萨斯州不再完全依赖石油和天然气，而是将自己定位在新能源技术的前沿(如果你听德州政客的话术，你可能并不知道这一点)。那些只有一个强大产业的地方应该开始考虑如何把优势作为一个平台来推出下一个新事物。
The last lesson, however, is a cautionary one. For much of its history, Texas has had an exceptionally lean government. It has been reluctant to invest in the people and projects required for the future, including education and roads. Of late, as its formidable growth shows, it has got away with this. But the lean approach almost certainly has its limits. The people moving to Texas have been better educated than native Texans and filled many of the higher-skilled jobs. The state should invest more in its workforce.
然而，最后一个经验是值得警惕的。在德州历史上的大部分时间里，政府都非常精简。德州一直不愿意投资于未来所需的人员和项目，包括教育和道路。最近，正如其惊人的增长所显示的那样，德州已经摆脱了这一困境。但这种精简的方法几乎肯定有其局限性。搬到德克萨斯州的人比德州当地人受过更好的教育，填补了许多高技能的工作岗位。德克萨斯州应该加大对劳动力的投资。