来源：《经济学人》
原文见刊日期：2023年4月22日
A price tag of $10.8bn would look hefty for most acquisitions of smallish and newish companies. But for Merck, a drugs giant known as MSD outside America, the money it is spending to buy Prometheus Biosciences, a biotech firm based in California, is relatively small change. In the world of big pharma such deals have the potential to generate enormous returns.
108亿美元的收购价对于大多数规模较小、成立不久的公司来说都显得过高。但是对于默克公司，这个在美国以外被称为默沙东的制药巨头来说，它花在收购普罗米修斯生物科学公司上的钱是相对较小的。普罗米修斯生物科学公司是一家总部设在加利福尼亚的生物技术公司。在大型制药公司的世界里，这样的交易有可能产生巨大的回报。
Even though Prometheus makes no profits to speak of and has no approved drugs on its slate, the big prize for Merck is PRA023, a drug approaching the late-stage of clinical trials developed by Prometheus to treat nasty autoimmune conditions. For now, Prometheus is burning through cash at a fast-rising rate. Merck’s decision to scoop it up is a bet on what comes next.
尽管普罗米修斯公司没有盈利，也没有获得批准的药物，但对默克公司来说，最大的收获是PRA023，这是一种由普罗米修斯公司开发的治疗严重自身免疫性疾病的药物，已接近临床试验的后期阶段。目前，普罗米修斯正在以快速上升的速度消耗现金。默克公司决定收购它，是对下一步会发生什么的押注。
The American giant badly needs promising new treatments to replenish its drugs pipeline. Like other pharma companies, it is facing a cliff-edge as patents on money-spinning treatments come to an end. Keytruda, Merck’s cancer-immunotherapy drug, accounted for over a third of its sales in 2022, but will face competition from cheaper copycats once key patents expire in 2028 in America and in Europe two years later.
这家美国巨头迫切需要有前景的新疗法来补充其药物储备。与其他制药公司一样，随着赚钱疗法的专利到期，该公司正面临悬崖边缘。默克公司的癌症免疫治疗药物Keytruda在2022年占其销售额的三分之一以上，但一旦关键专利于2028年在美国到期，以及两年后在欧洲到期，它将面临来自廉价仿制药的竞争。
The problem goes industry-wide. Patents for more than 190 drugs will expire before the end of the decade, leaving sales worth as much as $236bn at risk of a dramatic drop-off. Few will be spared the coming onslaught. The world’s ten biggest drugmakers, including Merck and Pfizer, stand to lose around 46% of their revenues, according to ZS, a consultancy.
这个问题遍及整个行业。逾190种药物的专利将在2030年前到期，这将使高达2360亿美元的销售额面临大幅下降的风险。几乎没有药企能幸免于即将到来的冲击。据咨询公司ZS称，包括默克和辉瑞在内的世界十大制药商将损失46%的收入。
Pharma bosses are spending big to plug the gaps. The industry has long turned to dealmaking as a way of compensating for the potential loss of revenue from expiring patents. Despite a dearth of mergers and acquisitions in other sectors, drugmakers are driving a wave of consolidation across the sector. PwC, a consultancy, estimates that the value of takeovers in the pharma and life-sciences industries could reach $275bn in 2023, up by almost three-quarters from last year.
制药公司的老板们正在斥巨资填补产品缺口。长期以来，制药行业一直将交易作为一种补偿专利到期带来的潜在收入损失的方式。尽管其他行业缺乏并购，但制药商正在推动整个行业的整合浪潮。咨询公司普华永道(PwC)估计，到2023年，制药和生命科学行业的收购价值可能达到2750亿美元，比去年增长近四分之三。
So far, the prices buyers are willing to pay have come with huge premiums. Merck is forking out $200 per share for Prometheus, a whopping 75% above the firm’s closing price just before the offer was made. Another acquisition unveiled in March will see Pfizer pay $43bn for Seagen, a loss-making cancer biotech firm. The industry’s richest deal in three years came at a 33% premium to Seagen’s share price. And on April 18th GSK, another pharma giant, agreed to buy Bellus Health, a Canadian biotech firm with a promising treatment for chronic coughs, at around double the company’s pre-deal value.
到目前为止，买家愿意支付的价格都伴随着巨额溢价。默克公司以每股200美元的价格收购普罗米修斯公司，比该公司在收购要约提出前的收盘价高出了75%。辉瑞公司3月份公布的另一项收购将以430亿美元收购亏损的癌症生物技术公司西根。这是制药业三年来最贵的一笔交易，收购价较西根的股价溢价33%。4月18日，另一家制药巨头葛兰素史克同意收购加拿大生物技术公司Bellus健康，该公司有望治疗慢性咳嗽，收购价约为交易前价值的两倍。
The benefits of paying out vast sums for drugs that are close to regulatory approval are clear. It can take more than a decade to bring a new drug to market, and many cures fail along the way. With a healthy $1.4trn in cash piles waiting to be deployed, big pharma is choosing to buy its way out of trouble instead.
为即将获得监管部门批准的药品支付巨额资金的好处是显而易见的。将一种新药推向市场可能需要十多年的时间，而且许多药物在此过程中都失败了。由于有1.4万亿美元的现金储备等着使用，大型制药公司正选择通过收购摆脱困境。