来源：《新科学家》
原文见刊日期：2023年5月6日
A revolution has gathered pace in the transport sector. Electric cars, once the preserve of those with deep pockets, have hit the mainstream.
交通运输领域的一场革命正在加快步伐。电动汽车，曾经是有钱人的专利，现在已经成为主流。
Figures released by the International Energy Agency (IEA) suggest that almost one in five new cars sold worldwide this year will be either full battery electric or plug-in hybrid models. In total, 14 million of these kinds of vehicles are expected to be sold this year, up from about a million in 2017.
国际能源署（IEA）发布的数据显示，今年全球销售的新车中，近五分之一将是全电池电动或插电式混合动力车型。预计今年新能源汽车的总销量为1400万辆，远高于2017年的约100万辆。
This explosive growth is testament to innovation and government interventions. Falling battery costs have delivered longer-range cars, boosting their appeal to consumers. Meanwhile, government policies, including looming bans on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars in some countries, have nudged people to embrace lower-emission driving.
这种爆炸式增长是创新和政府干预的证明。电池成本的下降带来了续航里程更远的汽车，增强了它们对消费者的吸引力。与此同时，政府的政策，包括一些国家即将禁止销售新的汽油和柴油汽车，促使人们接受低排放驾驶。
This transformation in the car industry will reshape world energy use. Global oil demand for road transport will peak in 2025, the IEA predicts.
汽车工业的这种转变将重塑世界的能源使用。国际能源署预测，全球公路运输的石油需求将在2025年达到峰值。
Although electrification of the global vehicle fleet brings climate benefits, there is also cause for concern. SUVs have been growing in popularity, accounting for 42 per cent of all car sales in 2020. Electric SUVs have also gained ground, representing roughly 35 per cent of electric passenger car sales in 2022.
尽管全球汽车的电气化带来了气候效益，但也有理由感到担忧。SUV越来越受欢迎，在2020年占所有汽车销量的42%。电动SUV也越来越为人们所接受，约占2022年电动乘用车销量的35%。
Christian Brand at the University of Oxford dubs this trend towards larger cars a “mobesity” epidemic. Electric SUVs are greener than their petrol and diesel counterparts, but their size erases some of the climate gains from moving to electric vehicles (EVs). Their larger batteries also require more raw minerals, putting extra pressure on stretched supplies. “The trend towards larger cars is definitely not desirable,” says Brand.
牛津大学的克里斯蒂安·布兰德将这种购买大型汽车的趋势称为“车胖症”流行病。电动SUV比汽油和柴油SUV更环保，但它们的尺寸抵消了转向电动汽车带来的一些气候效益。更大的电池也需要更多的原材料，给本已紧张的供应带来了额外的压力。布兰德表示：“购买大型汽车的趋势肯定是不可取的。”
He suggests policies may be needed to encourage people to opt for smaller EVs, such as hiking taxes for electric SUVs. “Of course, that’s unpopular with policy-makers because they would fear losing votes. But we could save hundreds of millions of tonnes of carbon over time, cumulatively to 2050, if we did something like this in the UK,” he says.
他建议，可能需要制定政策来鼓励人们选择较小的电动汽车，例如提高电动SUV的税率。“当然，这不受决策者的欢迎，因为他们担心失去选票。但如果我们在英国这样做，随着时间的推移，到2050年，我们可以累计节省数亿吨碳排放，”他说。
Air pollution is another worry. In lower-income countries like India, electric scooters and tuk-tuks are replacing diesel-powered vehicles, the IEA reports, which will lead to improvements in urban air quality. But in higher-income countries, where petrol and diesel cars tend to be cleaner, the situation isn’t so clear, says Frank Kelly at Imperial College London.
空气污染是另一个令人担忧的问题。国际能源署报告称，在印度等低收入国家，电动摩托车和嘟嘟车正在取代柴油动力汽车，这将改善城市空气质量。但伦敦帝国理工学院的弗兰克?凯利表示，在高收入国家，汽油和柴油汽车往往更清洁，情况就不那么明朗了。
“The benefit of moving to an electric vehicle, from an exhaust emission point of view, is actually pretty small,” says Kelly. And since electric vehicles still produce pollution from tyres, brakes and road wear, air pollution won’t go away. “We’re still going to have a pretty big problem in our cities,” says Kelly.
凯利说：“从废气排放的角度来看，转向电动汽车的好处实际上很小。”由于电动汽车仍然会产生轮胎、刹车和道路磨损造成的污染，空气污染不会消失。凯利说：“我们的城市仍将面临一个相当大的问题。”
Governments must do more to reduce car dependency, says Kelly. “Clean public transport is the solution to our air pollution problem in urban areas,” he says. “And really, we should be minimising all private vehicles as much as possible, not celebrating the increased numbers.”
凯利说，政府必须采取更多措施减少对汽车的依赖。“清洁的公共交通是解决城市空气污染问题的办法，”他说。“实际上，我们应该尽可能减少所有私家车的数量，而不是庆祝私家车数量的增加。”