来源：《新闻周刊》
原文见刊日期：2023年6月9日
The Hollywood writers strike, which began on May 2, is mainly about pay, but a secondary issue is how much scriptwriting work AI should be allowed to take. Programs like Google’s Bard and OpenAI’s GPT-4 can easily crank out scripts that seem much like the work of a human, and they can do it to suit almost any style, setting or theme, for little or no cost, almost instantly. “We have a real issue on our hands,” says Marc Guggenheim, a writer and producer. “It isn’t necessarily one in the very short term, but maybe as soon as a year from now it will be.”
5月2日开始的好莱坞编剧罢工主要是关于薪酬的，但次要问题是人工智能应该被允许承担多少编剧工作。像谷歌的Bard和OpenAI的GPT-4这样的程序可以很容易地编写出看起来很像人类工作的剧本，而且它们几乎可以立即适应任何风格、设置或主题，几乎不需要任何成本。作家兼制片人马克•古根海姆表示：“我们面临着一个真正的问题。”“这在短期内不一定会发生，但也许一年后就会发生。”
AI cannot match the quality of human writers, says Guggenheim. “AI scripts tend to be bland and uninteresting,” he says. “It’s improving quickly, but there will always be a human element, an X factor, that even the best AI won’t be able to imitate.” The bigger concern, he says, is that AI will take over some of the less-demanding writing jobs for which standards are lower, but which many writers depend on for a chunk of their income. That work includes rewrites, rough drafts, scripts for game and reality shows, and TV-show spinoff novels. “Directors who want a fast overnight rewrite for tomorrow’s show may just hand it over to ChatGPT,” he says. “That will make AI a direct threat to how writers are respected in Hollywood.”
古根海姆说，人工智能无法与人类作家的素质相提并论。他说：“人工智能剧本往往乏味无趣。它正在迅速改进，但总会有人为因素，一个未知因素，即使是最好的人工智能也无法模仿。”他说，更大的担忧是，人工智能将接管一些要求不高的写作工作，这些工作的标准较低，但许多作家的大部分收入都依赖于这些工作。这项工作包括重写、草稿、游戏和真人秀剧本，以及电视节目衍生小说。他说：“那些想在一夜之间为明天的节目快速重写的导演可能会把它交给ChatGPT。这将使人工智能直接威胁到作家在好莱坞受到的尊重。”
It may not be all bad for writers, however. In the near future, they might be able to write a script, feed it to an AI program and produce a finished TV show or even movie—no producer, director or actors needed. “AI can already produce pretty good videos based on written descriptions,” says Guggenheim.
然而，这对作家来说可能并不全是坏事。在不久的将来，他们也许可以写一个剧本，把它输入到人工智能程序中，然后制作出一部不需要制片人、导演或演员的电视剧甚至电影。古根海姆说：“人工智能已经可以根据书面描述制作出非常好的视频。”
There’s one line of work that AI may be ready to take over from humans: writing the code underlying apps, websites and other software. Entry-level coding jobs, at least, can be replaced by ChatGPT. But that doesn’t mean coders need to worry about being laid off. Because there’s a perennial shortage of coders, companies are far more likely to keep hiring them to oversee the AI tools, spelling out assignments and checking the resulting work. In one study an AI tool working alongside a human coder was able to speed up the coding process by 55 percent compared to a human working alone.
人工智能可能已经准备好接管人类的一项工作：编写应用程序、网站和其他软件的底层代码。至少，入门级的编程工作可以被ChatGPT取代。但这并不意味着程序员需要担心被解雇。由于程序员的长期短缺，公司更有可能继续雇佣他们来监督人工智能工具，详细说明任务并检查结果。在一项研究中，人工智能工具与人类程序员一起工作，与人类单独工作相比，能够将编码过程加快55%。
As AI tools get better at understanding non-technical directions, even people with little or no coding experience will be able to get a tool to produce a new mobile app, or a computer program that helps with business or professional tasks. AI lowers the bar for more of us to become software developers. Professional developers will keep their jobs, but they’ll end up focusing on more sophisticated software projects AI can’t handle alone.
随着人工智能工具在理解非技术方向方面做得越来越好，即使是很少或没有编程经验的人也能获得一种工具来制作新的移动应用程序，或者帮助完成商业或专业任务的计算机程序。人工智能降低了我们中更多人成为软件开发人员的门槛。专业开发人员会保住他们的工作，但他们最终将专注于人工智能无法单独处理的更复杂的软件项目。