来源：《华盛顿邮报》
原文刊登日期：2021年6月5日
The pandemic-induced economic crash of 2020 was unlike any other recession in history. The recovery has been peculiar, too. In ordinary business cycles, demand for goods and services comes back and businesses hire previously jobless workers as they expand to meet that demand, all more or less in sync. In 2021, the economy is booming in many places, but businesses complain they can’t find enough workers — even though there were still 9.3 million unemployed in May, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
由大流行引发的2020年经济崩溃与历史上任何一次衰退都不同。复苏也很奇特。在正常的商业周期中，对商品和服务的需求又回来了，企业在扩张以满足这一需求的同时，或多或少地同步雇用了以前失业的工人。2021年，许多地方的经济蓬勃发展，但企业抱怨找不到足够的工人——尽管根据劳工统计局的最新数据，5月份仍有930万人失业。
Data show a near 1-to-1 ratio between job openings and total unemployment, which is characteristic of a full-employment economy, not the 5.8 percent jobless rate recorded in May. Businesses speak of an actual labor “shortage”; the U.S. Chamber of Commerce has just labeled it a “national economic emergency.”
数据显示，就业空缺与总失业率的比率接近1:1，这是充分就业经济的特征，而不是5月录得的5.8%的失业率。企业称之为实际的劳动力“短缺”；美国商会刚刚将其列为“国家经济紧急状态”。
Whether the situation is really so urgent, or just paradoxical, depends on exactly what’s causing labor supply to lag. The main suspects include employee fears of getting the virus if they go back to work and emergency federal unemployment benefits of $300 per week, which make low-paying jobs in restaurants, hotels and theaters less attractive. Another oft-cited issue is a lack of child care because of school closings, but new research from economists Jason Furman and Melissa Kearney found that, burdensome as child-care problems were, “they do not appear to be a meaningful driver of the slow employment recovery.” Meanwhile, employers are being forced to raise wages and offer workers other inducements, which shows that there is an upside to the situation, often for those most in need of an economic boost.
这种情况是真的如此紧迫，还是只是自相矛盾，取决于究竟是什么原因导致劳动力供应滞后。主要的怀疑因素包括员工担心如果回去工作就会感染病毒，以及每周300美元的紧急联邦失业福利，这使得餐馆、酒店和剧院的低薪工作失去了吸引力。另一个经常被提及的问题是由于学校关闭而导致的儿童看护不足，但经济学家贾森·福尔曼和梅丽莎·科尔尼的新研究发现，尽管儿童看护问题令人头疼，但“它们似乎并不是就业复苏缓慢的重要推动力。”与此同时，雇主被迫提高工资，并向工人提供其他优惠，这表明形势有积极的一面，通常是针对那些最需要改善经济状况的人。
One aspect of the hiring crunch is the mismatch between employer needs and employee skills. An April National Federation of Independent Business survey of small businesses found 44 percent have jobs open they can’t fill, and cite “quality of labor” most frequently as their company’s most important problem. Investment in training and education is a long-standing need to which President Biden’s American Jobs Plan would devote $100 billion over the next eight years; it also seeks to double the number of registered apprenticeships. More money will help — and it will help more if spent on programs redesigned to overcome the relatively poor record of past federal job training.
招聘危机的一个方面是雇主的需求和员工技能之间的不匹配。全美独立企业联合会今年4月对小企业进行的一项调查显示，44%的小企业都有无法填补的空缺职位，他们最常提到的问题是“劳动力质量”。对培训和教育的投资是一项长期需要，拜登总统的美国就业计划将在未来8年投入1000亿美元；它还寻求将注册学徒人数增加一倍。更多的资金将会有所帮助——如果将更多的资金用于重新设计的项目，以克服过去联邦职业培训相对较差的记录，将会有更大的帮助。
There’s no harm in using a short-term crunch to argue for long-term policy changes, as the Chamber is doing both on job training and the need for more immigration, better focused on labor-force needs. On the whole, however, a little patience is in order. Current labor market distortions are real, and worrying, but may well resolve themselves when increased vaccination and declining covid-19 case rates reassure hesitant employees — and when enhanced unemployment benefits expire in September. After the pandemic has passed, we can better assess the long-term labor-market damage.
利用短期危机来争取长期政策变革没有坏处，就像美国商会在工作培训和增加移民需求方面所做的那样，更好地关注劳动力需求。不过，总的来说，还是要有一点耐心。当前的劳动力市场扭曲是真实的，令人担忧，但当增加的疫苗接种和新冠病例下降让犹豫不决的员工放心时，当增加的失业福利9月份到期时，这种扭曲很可能会得到解决。大流行过后，我们可以更好地评估对劳动力市场的长期损害。