来源：《华盛顿邮报》
原文刊登日期：2021年6月17日
Market anticipation for the Wednesday meeting of the Federal Reserve’s policy-making Open Market Committee was higher than usual, given that it took place shortly after the release of data showing that inflation continues to surge. Consumer prices were up 5 percent in May relative to May 2020, the fastest rate of increase since August 2008. Even leaving out volatile food and energy prices, “core” inflation was up 3.8 percent, which was the fastest increase for that indicator since June 1992. Long dormant as a risk factor in the U.S. and global economies, inflation now is being taken more seriously than at any time in more than 40 years.
市场对美联储决策机构公开市场委员会周三会议的预期高于以往，因为该会议是在公布数据显示通胀继续飙升后不久举行的。与2020年5月相比，今年5月的消费者价格上涨了5%，这是自2008年8月以来最快的增长速度。即使不包括波动较大的食品和能源价格，"核心"通胀率也上升了3.8%，为1992年6月以来的最快增幅。作为美国和全球经济长期潜伏的风险因素，通货膨胀现在比40多年来的任何时候都更受到重视。
The question on everyone’s mind was: Would the Fed react to the new numbers by adjusting the easy-money stance it adopted in response to the pandemic-induced economic collapse of a year ago? The central bank, and its chair, Jerome H. Powell, answered “no,” albeit with a warning. Though the Fed raised its own forecast of 2021 annual inflation a full percentage point over its March estimate, to 3.4 percent, there will be no reduction of its $120 billion per month bond-buying program, until the Fed sees what Mr. Powell called “substantial further progress” toward full employment. And there will be no short-term increase in the Fed’s key interest rate, which is currently set at zero. That’s where the warning came in: The Fed’s board published non-binding forecasts after its March meeting that point to the need for at least one rate increase in 2023, as opposed to 2024.
大家心里都在想：美联储是否会对新的数据作出反应，调整为应对一年前大流行引发的经济崩溃而采取的宽松货币政策立场？美联储及其主席杰罗姆·h·鲍威尔的回答是“不”，尽管他附带了警告。虽然美联储将其对2021年的年度通胀预期上调了整整一个百分点，至3.4%，但在美联储看到鲍威尔所说的充分就业方面取得“实质性的进一步进展”之前，不会削减其每月1200亿美元的债券购买计划。美联储将不会在短期内上调目前为零的关键利率。这就是警告的来源：美联储董事会在3月份的会议后发布了不具约束力的预告，指出2023年至少需要加息一次，而不是原定的2024年。
Hypothetical as they still are, these earlier rate hikes — which generally make stocks less attractive to investors — would come too soon for Wall Street’s taste, and the market fell after the Fed meeting. Yet they would come too late for skeptics of the Fed’s posture, who note that it is getting hard to square with the central bank’s own acknowledgement that inflation is running faster than it thought just three months ago. Mohamed A. El-Erian, of Cambridge University, tweeted that a “possible policy mistake” by the Fed ranks with vaccine-resistant covid virus variants as a risk to the global economy.
尽管提前加息仍是假设（加息通常会降低股市对投资者的吸引力），但对华尔街来说，加息来得太早，美联储会议后股市应声下跌。然而，对于对美联储姿态持怀疑态度的人来说，加息来得太晚了。他们指出，美联储自己承认通胀速度比3个月加息与这一事实不符。剑桥大学的穆罕默德·a·埃尔-埃利安在推特上表示，美联储“可能的政策错误”与抗疫苗的新型冠状病毒变体一样，对全球经济构成了风险。
The Fed is sticking to its view that much inflationary pressure comes from “transitory” effects related to the post-pandemic reopening, such as a surge of consumer and government spending while many sectors of the economy are still struggling to ramp up production. Mr. Powell said he sees “no sign” that long-term inflation expectations are getting out of hand. And he’s got data to back him up, such as persistently low interest rates on 10-year Treasury notes.
美联储坚持自己的观点，即很大程度的通胀压力来自大流行后重新开放相关的“暂时性”影响，比如消费者和政府支出激增，而许多经济部门仍在努力提高生产。鲍威尔说，他没有看到长期通胀预期失控的迹象。他还得到了数据的支持，比如10年期美国国债利率持续走低。
Mr. Powell is obviously not indifferent to the threat of uncontrolled inflation, a fact he restated Wednesday. Equally clearly, he believes that the bigger risks to prosperity lie in trying to cool the economy — which is what inflation-fighting requires — while job creation and wage increases are still heating up.
鲍威尔对通货膨胀失控的威胁显然不是漠不关心，他在星期三重申了这一事实。同样明显的是，他认为，繁荣面临的更大风险在于，在创造就业和加薪仍在升温的同时，试图给经济降温——而这是抗击通胀所需要的。